David Prince
US Equity/Options Fund Manager, Mentor at T3 Live
Viking Therapeutics' large short position sets up a squeeze, since great news would leave those shorts in big trouble. The daily chart shows a bullish ascending triangle. x.comÂ
Viking Therapeutics now has enough cash to finish its phase 3 trials, so it can hold out for a home-run acquisition offer, likely nothing below $200 a share after its positive maintenance trial. The offering added $547.8M, lifting cash to about $1B, enough for roughly 24 months at a bit over $40M of monthly burn, though phase 3 may burn faster, and possibly close to the NDA stage. Dilution of 9% from stock and 5% from converts will be worth it. x.com x.comÂ
A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Viking Therapeutics gets zero credit for what has long looked like a top obesity drug. In its VK2735 maintenance study, patients switched to less-frequent dosing, including monthly, kept up to about 97% of prior weight loss and reached about 22% total over 33 weeks, addressing the weight-regain concern. The results came a day after Novo Nordisk signaled bigger obesity M&A, reviving takeout speculation, yet no one has bought Viking. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Viking Therapeutics holds the most valuable obesity peptide real estate outside Eli Lilly, making it a $100 stock in plain sight. VK2735 keeps producing compelling injectable and oral data, with the oral candidate surprising many and looking more competitive than Novo's oral program. Big Pharma badly needs differentiated obesity assets and Viking is one of few quality independents left, so a buyout would be no surprise and a bidding war could send it to $100+ fast. Alone it is a 3-5x story. … Show more
Viking Therapeutics selling shares at $35 caps its upside; it should accept a buyout at double that price instead. It priced 7.85 million shares at $35 alongside $225 million of 2% convertible notes due 2032, after upsizing both offerings from $200 million. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers, Nautilus Biotechnology, Viking Therapeutics, Protagonist Therapeutics and Eli Lilly have 10x potential as peptide-related stocks; peptides will create generational wealth this year. Nautilus has a $230 million market cap, Viking $3.5 billion, Protagonist $9.1 billion and Lilly $1.1 trillion. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Therapeutics and genomics are a hot theme that retail traders, focused on AI and software, have not yet noticed. Healthcare, drugs and biotech have been strong for the last few months. Favorites in the group are Revolution Medicines, Twist Bioscience, Halozyme and TG Therapeutics. x.comÂ
Viking Therapeutics is just another GLP-1 drug in a sea of many and will get crushed commercially by the big drugmakers. In a biotech bubble, only companies with a broad, diverse pipeline of potential blockbusters are worth owning. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk trades at its lowest valuation ever, about 7x earnings, in the same year it launched one of the most in-demand oral medications in the world. Competition from Eli Lilly is a real headwind, but even if Novo's oral market share fell to 50% it should do fine, and an expected 1-3% earnings drop next year hardly justifies 7x. Novo should still be competing at a similar scale in seven years. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ