Viking Therapeutics is a beaten-down stock with good news. It has great Phase 1 data and more capital, after a 33% decline from recent highs. x.com  x.com 

Viking Therapeutics now has enough cash to finish its phase 3 trials, so it can hold out for a home-run acquisition offer, likely nothing below $200 a share after its positive maintenance trial. The offering added $547.8M, lifting cash to about $1B, enough for roughly 24 months at a bit over $40M of monthly burn, though phase 3 may burn faster, and possibly close to the NDA stage. Dilution of 9% from stock and 5% from converts will be worth it. x.com  x.com 

A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Viking Therapeutics holds the most valuable obesity peptide real estate outside Eli Lilly, making it a $100 stock in plain sight. VK2735 keeps producing compelling injectable and oral data, with the oral candidate surprising many and looking more competitive than Novo's oral program. Big Pharma badly needs differentiated obesity assets and Viking is one of few quality independents left, so a buyout would be no surprise and a bidding war could send it to $100+ fast. Alone it is a 3-5x story. … Show more

Viking Therapeutics' large short position sets up a squeeze, since great news would leave those shorts in big trouble. The daily chart shows a bullish ascending triangle. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics selling shares at $35 caps its upside; it should accept a buyout at double that price instead. It priced 7.85 million shares at $35 alongside $225 million of 2% convertible notes due 2032, after upsizing both offerings from $200 million. x.com 

Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's higher-dose Wegovy strengthens the bull case because it works cleaner, not just better. Early responders lost 27.7% of body weight on average at 72 weeks, with 84% of the loss from fat, visceral fat down over 30% and muscle function preserved. That answers the historic knock on GLP-1s, muscle loss. It adds to oral Wegovy, which gained 65,000 new weekly prescriptions in eight weeks by unlocking patients who avoid injections. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics is just another GLP-1 drug in a sea of many and will get crushed commercially by the big drugmakers. In a biotech bubble, only companies with a broad, diverse pipeline of potential blockbusters are worth owning. x.com 

Eli Lilly's retatrutide posted very impressive Phase 3 results and could become the best-selling drug ever if it preserves muscle better than rivals. At 80 weeks, patients on 4mg, 9mg and 12mg lost 19.0%, 25.9% and 28.3% of body weight, and 27.9-30.3% at 104 weeks; 62.5% on 12mg lost over 25%. As a triple agonist it can deliver better results at lower doses than semaglutide and tirzepatide, with better visceral fat, cholesterol and blood sugar markers. Muscle-preservation data isn't in yet. … Show more