Hims & Hers may benefit as GLP-1 drugmakers lose pricing power. With dozens of GLP-1s in development on top of those available today, no pharmaceutical company appears to have sustainable pricing power, which looks good for Hims & Hers. x.comÂ
Travis Hoium
Motley Fool Analyst, Author of Asymmetric Investing
Hims & Hers could gain a massive new growth opportunity if peptide access expands after the White House completed its review of the FDA's interim policy. Six peptides, including BPC-157, TB-500 and MOTS-c, could gain expanded access; Hims is preparing treatments. The potential market is $2B-$3B. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' newly previewed Peptides+ offering could add a growth vertical to its healthcare platform. Management plans access to sermorelin, glutathione and NAD+; recent regulatory developments may also open a path for BPC-157 and TB-500, subject to further conditions. Rollout and commercial opportunity remain unproven, and margins and execution are still risks. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is one to avoid because it has been forced out of higher-margin compounded GLP-1s into lower-margin business. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' shift from compounded GLP-1s to branded treatments like Novo Nordisk's validates the thesis rather than hurting it, making it one of the most asymmetric buys in the market. Hims is sacrificing short-term margins to bring blockbuster weight-loss drugs onto its platform, then cross-sell higher-margin treatments. Subscribers rose 307K in Q2, partly from the Eucalyptus acquisition, and more customers bring more data, better personalization and outcomes, and more customers. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers will keep missing if Eli Lilly protects retatrutide with a biologic patent and traditional GLP-1 prices keep falling. Other peptides beyond GLP-1s are years away, and there are not enough effective and safe ones to drive meaningful revenue. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' peptide capabilities may be underappreciated, setting up a strong bounce after peptide news. Per @riyadosofian, it is the only telehealth company with a peptide facility and global distribution system. A strong bounce is expected now as the stock holds outside its wedge. x.com x.comÂ
Peptides could fast-track Hims & Hers' patient network like Harry Potter did for Amazon. Its US-based supply chain, manufacturing and clinical network could serve new demand. The FDA's interim compounding policy cleared White House review and may be released any day, potentially allowing certain peptides; Lee Rosebush says six are in Category 1. The policy's terms remain unknown. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers faces continued selling pressure as GLP-1 competition intensifies. Q1 revenue of $608.1 million missed the $617.5 million estimate, gross margin was 65.0% versus 71.7% expected, and EPS turned negative for the first time since Q3 2023. Q2 EBITDA guidance of $35-55 million trailed the $70.1 million estimate, and the full-year EBITDA range was cut. Management's call for growth to reaccelerate from 4% to 18-20% looks doubtful, though revenue guidance and 30% short interest cap a short. … Show more
Hims & Hers can 10x on GLP-1s and international expansion. It has a $6.86B market cap against $2.58B of trailing revenue growing 28%, with 3 million subscribers. x.com x.comÂ