Hims & Hers is a telehealth powerhouse whose rapid expansion into GLP-1 weight-loss offerings is driving hyper-growth in revenue and subscribers. Its legal issues are now behind it. x.comÂ
Burak Finance
Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB
Hims & Hers' shift from compounded GLP-1s to branded treatments like Novo Nordisk's validates the thesis rather than hurting it, making it one of the most asymmetric buys in the market. Hims is sacrificing short-term margins to bring blockbuster weight-loss drugs onto its platform, then cross-sell higher-margin treatments. Subscribers rose 307K in Q2, partly from the Eucalyptus acquisition, and more customers bring more data, better personalization and outcomes, and more customers. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers can 10x on GLP-1s and international expansion. It has a $6.86B market cap against $2.58B of trailing revenue growing 28%, with 3 million subscribers. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers faces continued selling pressure as GLP-1 competition intensifies. Q1 revenue of $608.1 million missed the $617.5 million estimate, gross margin was 65.0% versus 71.7% expected, and EPS turned negative for the first time since Q3 2023. Q2 EBITDA guidance of $35-55 million trailed the $70.1 million estimate, and the full-year EBITDA range was cut. Management's call for growth to reaccelerate from 4% to 18-20% looks doubtful, though revenue guidance and 30% short interest cap a short. … Show more
Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' newly previewed Peptides+ offering could add a growth vertical to its healthcare platform. Management plans access to sermorelin, glutathione and NAD+; recent regulatory developments may also open a path for BPC-157 and TB-500, subject to further conditions. Rollout and commercial opportunity remain unproven, and margins and execution are still risks. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers is one to avoid because it has been forced out of higher-margin compounded GLP-1s into lower-margin business. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers' peptide capabilities may be underappreciated, setting up a strong bounce after peptide news. Per @riyadosofian, it is the only telehealth company with a peptide facility and global distribution system. A strong bounce is expected now as the stock holds outside its wedge. x.com x.comÂ
Hims & Hers may benefit as GLP-1 drugmakers lose pricing power. With dozens of GLP-1s in development on top of those available today, no pharmaceutical company appears to have sustainable pricing power, which looks good for Hims & Hers. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers looks good on paper, but past revenue growth does not guarantee future growth and margins are falling, which is very bad. Its peptides story could rerate the stock if executed, but it brings another regulatory overhang: peptides will be in regulation headlines every day and the stock will trade on them. x.comÂ
Hims & Hers could gain a massive new growth opportunity if peptide access expands after the White House completed its review of the FDA's interim policy. Six peptides, including BPC-157, TB-500 and MOTS-c, could gain expanded access; Hims is preparing treatments. The potential market is $2B-$3B. x.comÂ