Novo Nordisk's management showed too little action against near-term problems, leaving the case in real doubt for the first time. A 5-10-year recovery plan clashes with the semaglutide patent expiring within that window, already lost in Canada, India and Turkey, while Eli Lilly poses real threats. Pipeline work in blood/endocrine, liver and cardiovascular is exciting and diversifying would be a game changer, and NovoCare is a positive, but the clock is running and management is uninspiring. … Show more

Novo Nordisk's AI partnerships won't pay off in the stock until its R&D bill starts behaving differently. R&D rose from DKK 14.2bn in 2019 to DKK 52.0bn in 2025, from 11.7% to 16.8% of sales, and 2026 brought a failed ZEUS trial, DKK 6.3bn of pipeline impairments and sales guided at 0% to -6%. The stock fell hard on those events but barely moved on the OpenAI, AWS and Anthropic deals. Disclosing a metric like time from target to first human dose would make them priceable. x.com 

Novo Nordisk is cheap at about 9x earnings, even assuming zero earnings growth. At 15x its current earnings it would be worth about $61 a share, and at 20x about $82. That $82 level is roughly a return to the 200-week moving average, about 115% upside, so the fundamental rerating and the technical target point to the same area. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's fundamentals are not clearly strengthening yet after a 70% fall. A possible technical reversal signal has appeared, but it is weak. x.com 

Novo Nordisk carries too much legal drama to invest in, with lawsuits piling up. The latest, per @AIStockSavvy, is Viatris suing Novo over a patent dispute on generic Wegovy. x.com 

Novo Nordisk is far too cheap in the $30s given its earnings power. It earned about $1 million of net income every 34 minutes in 2025, yet the stock fell 40% that year and is down 25% this year, even allowing for its 2032-2035 outlook. x.com 

Hims & Hers should improve in Q2 as Novo Nordisk products began shipping only in April; Q3 is expected to reaccelerate as branded GLP-1 sales ramp. Q1 revenue of $608M missed the $616.8M estimate, and EPS was -$0.40 versus $0.03 expected. Q2 revenue guidance is $680-700M and FY2026 guidance is $2.8-3.0B. A $3.8-3.9B FY2026 base case assumes roughly $400M from Eucalyptus after a midyear close; a later close would reduce that contribution. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Eli Lilly cannot keep charging 2-4x the price of Novo Nordisk's older weight-loss drugs if Novo aggressively defends market share on price, because Lilly's drugs are only marginally more effective. That makes HSBC's view that weight-loss drug expectations are overinflated look obviously correct. x.com 

Novo Nordisk looks cheap against its cash earnings, at 11x versus the roughly 14x drugmakers usually get. Applying 14x to next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, gives fair value of about $57 to $73, with the stock 18% under the low end; a pullback zone sits at $33.98. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Hims & Hers is undervalued because the market still prices its old compounding-dependent business, not the platform rebuilt around a Novo Nordisk partnership. Wegovy now launches through Hims, an FDA-sanctioned GLP-1 channel, and app downloads went 4x overnight. It trades at 17x forward EBITDA versus a 22x history, despite 72% gross margins, 2.5 million subscribers and monthly revenue per subscriber up to $83 in 2025 from $65. Target: $85 by December 2026. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more