Hated Moats Investor
Contrarian Quality-Stock Research, 25 Years in Markets, GOOGL Since 2011
Novo Nordisk's medium-term outlook is too little, too late. At its Capital Markets Day, management guided 2026-30 revenue growth only in line with peers and broadly stable margins, while the biggest pipeline targets weigh toward 2030-35: a solid long-term story without near-term growth visibility. A hot-mic remark, flagged by @investseekers, that it is almost impossible to provide guidance makes management look increasingly incompetent, even granting the new CEO the benefit of the doubt. x.com x.com
Novo Nordisk looks cheap against its cash earnings, at 11x versus the roughly 14x drugmakers usually get. Applying 14x to next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, gives fair value of about $57 to $73, with the stock 18% under the low end; a pullback zone sits at $33.98. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com
Novo Nordisk is cheap at about 9x earnings, even assuming zero earnings growth. At 15x its current earnings it would be worth about $61 a share, and at 20x about $82. That $82 level is roughly a return to the 200-week moving average, about 115% upside, so the fundamental rerating and the technical target point to the same area. x.com
Novo Nordisk's P/E is expected to rise because its earnings are expected to drop. The market is forward-looking, not backward-looking, and it doesn't like companies that have completely messed up for years, as Novo has. x.com
Novo Nordisk could run with healthcare stocks as tech sells off, helped by the midterm health trend of the last 20 years. The market seems to be looking for value in health and pharma. Novo's $11.8 billion in free cash flow and major buybacks at these levels should eventually lift its depressed price once investors realize Novo and Eli Lilly can both do well in oral GLP-1s, where Novo leads. Novo might have found a bottom. x.com
Novo Nordisk trades at its lowest valuation ever, about 7x earnings, in the same year it launched one of the most in-demand oral medications in the world. Competition from Eli Lilly is a real headwind, but even if Novo's oral market share fell to 50% it should do fine, and an expected 1-3% earnings drop next year hardly justifies 7x. Novo should still be competing at a similar scale in seven years. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Novo Nordisk's management showed too little action against near-term problems, leaving the case in real doubt for the first time. A 5-10-year recovery plan clashes with the semaglutide patent expiring within that window, already lost in Canada, India and Turkey, while Eli Lilly poses real threats. Pipeline work in blood/endocrine, liver and cardiovascular is exciting and diversifying would be a game changer, and NovoCare is a positive, but the clock is running and management is uninspiring. … Show more
Novo Nordisk is one of the best opportunities in the market and a safe haven in an AI-driven market, crushed while its long-term growth story is rebuilt. It trades at 9x earnings with a 4.64% dividend yield, controls about 80% of the GLP-1 weight-loss pill market and plans to scale oral GLP-1 capacity 10x by 2030. Revenue growth is expected to return to double digits in 2027, and it has partnered with Anthropic on drug discovery. It would need a 110% rally to regain its 200-week average. x.com
Novo Nordisk can bounce 100% and still be undervalued now that retail has given up on it. It is consolidating above its 200-month moving average, now moves with the US market, offers a 4.4% dividend and sits in one of the biggest sectors, given how many people struggle to put the fork down when full. x.com
Novo Nordisk's AI partnerships won't pay off in the stock until its R&D bill starts behaving differently. R&D rose from DKK 14.2bn in 2019 to DKK 52.0bn in 2025, from 11.7% to 16.8% of sales, and 2026 brought a failed ZEUS trial, DKK 6.3bn of pipeline impairments and sales guided at 0% to -6%. The stock fell hard on those events but barely moved on the OpenAI, AWS and Anthropic deals. Disclosing a metric like time from target to first human dose would make them priceable. x.com
Novo Nordisk is worthwhile even with underwhelming 2030 targets, because the market prices in almost zero growth and it does not need 10% annual growth to pay off. Its goal of revenue growth in line with major pharma peers is realistic and puts growth back on the table, though clearer numbers are needed. Management credibility is a concern after a hot mic at its Capital Markets Day caught someone saying it is almost impossible to provide guidance, per @investseekers. x.com x.com x.com x.com