Globalstar's value lies in its globally licensed spectrum, which is what Amazon is buying in its agreed acquisition. Per Amazon, Globalstar will bring direct-to-device connectivity to Amazon Leo, and Amazon signed with Apple to power iPhone and Apple Watch satellite services, with D2D launches starting in 2028. Before the deal, the SpaceX IPO narrative and Amazon acquisition rumors made the sector untouchable on the short side, and SuperTrend buy signals fired weeks earlier. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AST SpaceMobile's D2D prospects weaken as telcos look to Amazon and Ligado may give up spectrum. Telcos see Amazon as their most realistic potential savior, though their JV seems poised to sign MOUs with both. People consulted expect Amazon to buy Viasat mainly for international spectrum; US capacity and timing remain uncertain. AST's payments do not cover Ligado's Viasat dues, so Ligado may settle with the US for auction credits and surrender spectrum rights, leaving AST stranded. x.com 

Amazon's negative free cash flow and far-off AWS guidance add to its investment risk. Free cash flow is -$42 billion. True_yes_man describes Jassy extrapolating fourth-quarter AWS revenue at 40% growth for five years. That guide cannot be taken seriously; it resembles the Tesla and Nvidia playbook of projecting years ahead to support the market into the midterms, then recalibrating later. x.com  x.com 

AST SpaceMobile faces growing satellite-cellular competition beyond Starlink Mobile, which, per Starlink, agreed to acquire a nationwide US low-band spectrum portfolio. A later 5,105-satellite direct-to-cell system from Amazon tied to Globalstar is also a threat. AST's best chance is giving AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile a fighting chance against them; that reliable Starlink Mobile service is a long way off doesn't matter. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Globalstar was likely to fetch a rich price from Amazon, as Amazon's M&A bankers would see a massive SpaceX IPO lifting satellite valuations. Per Bloomberg, Amazon was in advanced talks to buy Globalstar to accelerate Amazon Leo, which is set to fall short of an FCC deadline; Globalstar runs a functioning network, powers Apple's iPhone emergency service and has useful spectrum. Per the WSJ, Amazon then announced the deal at $90 a share in cash or Amazon stock capped at $90. x.com  x.com 

Amazon's unusual long-term AWS guidance looks desperate and leaves its stock looking dead. @P_Remarks says Amazon normally avoids long-term guidance and speculates that its projection of over 40% AWS revenue growth in both 2027 and 2028 was a Hail Mary to offset a quarter weak relative to expectations. x.com 

SpaceX and Amazon's unlimited resources and talent make AST SpaceMobile an unwise investment. Buying it means competing with both. x.com 

SpaceX should post huge numbers in 2027 as Starlink's recurring revenue grows alongside a much faster-growing SI business. Kalshi Finance reports 13.6 million Starlink subscribers, up from 7.2 million a year ago. At $69 monthly revenue per user, Starlink is generating close to $938 million a month; it is SpaceX's second-fastest-growing business at 69% year over year, behind SI at 830%. x.com 

Amazon's retail business makes it an unattractive way to own ANT exposure now that hyperscalers are no longer necessary for it. x.com 

Amazon's $90-a-share buyout of Globalstar shows big tech would rather buy established, mission-critical constellations than build them, backing the case that Iridium's global L-band spectrum is a trophy asset to be priced for M&A, not just cash flow. With Globalstar off the board, Iridium's re-rating continues. x.com