Cole Grinde
Stock & Options Investor, Dividends/Value/Fundamentals, Tesla
SpaceX should post huge numbers in 2027 as Starlink's recurring revenue grows alongside a much faster-growing SI business. Kalshi Finance reports 13.6 million Starlink subscribers, up from 7.2 million a year ago. At $69 monthly revenue per user, Starlink is generating close to $938 million a month; it is SpaceX's second-fastest-growing business at 69% year over year, behind SI at 830%. x.comÂ
SpaceX's largest share unlock yet could create unusually strong selling pressure. Up to 1.3 billion shares, about 28% of the main 180-day lockup pool, became eligible for sale, potentially around $200 billion of stock, though not all will sell immediately. Unlike earlier smaller unlocks, this one is different; the long-term outlook remains bright enough to hold through it. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Super Intelligence revenue growth and turn to operating profit are encouraging, while Starlink supplies an established earnings base. SI revenue reached $7.56B, up about 830% year over year, and swung to $431M operating profit; Starlink generated about $2.4B operating income. Substantial AI capex is the key financial risk, making margins, free cash flow and ROIC critical over an 18-36 month horizon. x.comÂ
SpaceX's surging AI revenue and Starlink profits could make today's expensive valuation look cheaper as earnings catch up. Q3 revenue rose 161% to $14.6B; Super Intelligence brought in $7.6B, Starlink earned $2.37B in operating income, and backlog reached $63B. Q1 2027 revenue guidance is $33B-$37B versus ~$22B expected. A path to $200/share depends on meeting guidance and sustaining compute pricing and utilization; $35B-$40B in Q4 capex brings financing, dilution and execution risks. x.comÂ
SpaceX's growing connectivity profit improves its business case, but spending still leaves self-funded growth unproven. Starlink users rose from 12m to 13.6m and ARPU from $66 to $69; connectivity earned $2.4B of $2.8B operating profit. The $4.4B net profit includes non-operating and tax gains, while AI's operating margin is about 5.7%. Quarterly capex exceeded revenue at $19.6B, with $35-40B planned for Q4. Valuation still requires evidence of cash returns. x.comÂ
SpaceX's AI and connectivity growth is translating into rapid revenue growth and operating profit. Q3 revenue reached $14.6B, up 161% year over year, versus $18.7B in all of 2025; operating income reached $2.8B. Starlink hit a $21B annual revenue run rate; Cursor added $608M after its August 14 acquisition, a $4.6B annualized rate. SpaceX looks on track to become the world's largest company by end-2027, with $1T+ in annual revenue coming soon. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Starlink's recurring revenue, expanded by SpaceX's own launch capability, is the part of SpaceX worth owning for years. Starlink ended Q2 with 12 million subscribers, double a year earlier, and the connectivity business generated $4.3 billion in quarterly revenue and $1.7 billion in operating income. Owning the rockets helps SpaceX grow the network that collects recurring customer payments. x.comÂ
SpaceX's valuation front-ran a great business that still has two hard dependencies, and the stock is repricing the hype. Starlink Mobile's V2 satellites, deploying from 2027, depend entirely on Starship cadence, and its urban 5G story needs EchoStar spectrum that transfers only in November 2027. The real moat is polar and high-latitude coverage, shown by a Deutsche Telekom deal covering 140M subscribers. The stock is down 50% from its $225 June peak at 60 times sales. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's AI business now exceeds Starlink in revenue, making the company much more than a rocket builder. AI revenue reached $7.6B versus Starlink's $5.2B, while total revenue rose 161% to $14.6B and adjusted EBITDA rose 306% to $8.8B. What SpaceX is building is incredibly bullish. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Q3 profitability lets it fund much more of its buildout, significantly reducing the need for outside financing. Revenue of $14.6B and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8B beat even the high cases; free cash flow was still -$10B after $19.6B of capex. SpaceX said new compute deals price a bit above $30-$50 per watt with payback under a year, though Q4 capex is guided to $35-$40B. Starlink subscribers fell just short of the low case but beat the Street, and consumer revenue grew 26%. x.com x.com … Show more
SpaceX's unlock supply takes 2-3 months to absorb, setting up a December accumulation bottom. About 320M shares unlock Oct 24, up to 1.3B more after Q3 earnings, and a final tranche Dec 8. The float, not the business, is the problem: Q2 revenue grew 92% and Starlink has 12M subscribers. The bottom zone is $80-$90; $120-$140 bounces are traps. A $140 reclaim confirms a turn toward $300-$320 by April 2027; a daily close above $180 invalidates the setup. x.comÂ
SpaceX can scale Starlink faster than fiber because each cheaper launch adds capacity across countries without digging trenches or waiting for permits. Starlink subscribers grew from about 4.4 million to 13.6 million in under two years, including 1.6 million in one quarter; AT&T fiber connections grew about 36% over the chart's period. Beams limit growth in dense cities, though SpaceX says V3 satellites add much more capacity per launch. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
