Simjo
Fundamental Equity Analyst, Geopolitics
SpaceX's valuation front-ran a great business that still has two hard dependencies, and the stock is repricing the hype. Starlink Mobile's V2 satellites, deploying from 2027, depend entirely on Starship cadence, and its urban 5G story needs EchoStar spectrum that transfers only in November 2027. The real moat is polar and high-latitude coverage, shown by a Deutsche Telekom deal covering 140M subscribers. The stock is down 50% from its $225 June peak at 60 times sales. x.com x.com
SpaceX's real crash hasn't even started, because insiders can't sell until the lock-up expires in August. The stock IPO'd at $135 and peaked at $225 on pure retail euphoria; it is now $165 and falling but still up 27% from the IPO price. Per Bull Theory, it has dropped more than 25% in four sessions. x.com
SpaceX's growing connectivity profit improves its business case, but spending still leaves self-funded growth unproven. Starlink users rose from 12m to 13.6m and ARPU from $66 to $69; connectivity earned $2.4B of $2.8B operating profit. The $4.4B net profit includes non-operating and tax gains, while AI's operating margin is about 5.7%. Quarterly capex exceeded revenue at $19.6B, with $35-40B planned for Q4. Valuation still requires evidence of cash returns. x.com
SpaceX's unlock supply takes 2-3 months to absorb, setting up a December accumulation bottom. About 320M shares unlock Oct 24, up to 1.3B more after Q3 earnings, and a final tranche Dec 8. The float, not the business, is the problem: Q2 revenue grew 92% and Starlink has 12M subscribers. The bottom zone is $80-$90; $120-$140 bounces are traps. A $140 reclaim confirms a turn toward $300-$320 by April 2027; a daily close above $180 invalidates the setup. x.com
SpaceX should post huge numbers in 2027 as Starlink's recurring revenue grows alongside a much faster-growing SI business. Kalshi Finance reports 13.6 million Starlink subscribers, up from 7.2 million a year ago. At $69 monthly revenue per user, Starlink is generating close to $938 million a month; it is SpaceX's second-fastest-growing business at 69% year over year, behind SI at 830%. x.com
SpaceX's growth story does not hold up, and Musk's guess of $3.5 trillion of revenue around 2033, reported by @cfromhertz, is laughable. Orbital data centers are fundamentally flawed; Starlink is inferior to AST SpaceMobile's full-speed direct-to-cell broadband with 60 carrier partners; and its launch business faces competition from Blue Origin and Rocket Lab. x.com
SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.com
SpaceX's satellite network should let Starlink Mobile provide equivalent cellular service with far less terrestrial infrastructure than other carriers. Acquiring some cell towers therefore makes sense. StockSavvyShay says SpaceX is in talks to secure at least 80,000 US cell sites. x.com
SpaceX remains unattractive: its reported $8 billion spectrum deal covers only a tiny fraction of what a nationwide wireless network would require, even with expensive satellites that last just five years. x.com
Europe's push for satellite independence as Starlink expands could make AST SpaceMobile one of its most attractive alternatives and a major beneficiary. Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica and Vodafone, all AST partners, signed a letter of intent to explore a joint spectrum bid; AST cites over 500 million European subscribers. No spectrum purchase or exclusive AST contract is secured; regulatory approval, commercial agreements, deployment and cash flow must follow. x.com x.com
Starlink's recurring revenue, expanded by SpaceX's own launch capability, is the part of SpaceX worth owning for years. Starlink ended Q2 with 12 million subscribers, double a year earlier, and the connectivity business generated $4.3 billion in quarterly revenue and $1.7 billion in operating income. Owning the rockets helps SpaceX grow the network that collects recurring customer payments. x.com
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com
