SpaceX's effort to make satellite-only coverage count toward buildout requirements casts doubt on its terrestrial-network pitch. It is spending considerable energy seeking that option while saying it plans to build a terrestrial network. x.com 

SpaceX's $2T valuation may price in orbital data centers that remain a distant vision. Its operating business is essentially a scaled neocloud and internet provider, raising the question of whether current operations justify that valuation. x.com 

SpaceX's negative cost of capital gives it an advantage over AT&T and Verizon as it enters mobile telecom; neither incumbent has that funding position. x.com 

SpaceX is not making money, yet it is borrowing to buy Nvidia chips while relying on government money. It is looking to raise $40B of debt for AI compute, per @StockSavvyShay, and its CEO stands to receive an enormous compensation package from shareholders for work funded by taxpayers. x.com 

SpaceX's roughly $2T valuation is hard to justify while it burns $10B in cash annually and the market expects it to put hundreds of billions of dollars of chips into space next year. x.com 

SpaceX's satellite network should let Starlink Mobile provide equivalent cellular service with far less terrestrial infrastructure than other carriers. Acquiring some cell towers therefore makes sense. StockSavvyShay says SpaceX is in talks to secure at least 80,000 US cell sites. x.com 

SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.com 

SpaceX's neocloud-driven valuation is vulnerable to short-notice compute contract exits. Losing contracts with 90-day out clauses could cut $500B from its valuation; at least one out clause appears to be coming in 2027 rather than 2029. Neocloud expectations drive 80% of its current valuation, despite earlier fundraising on Starlink, reusable rockets and Mars. What happened to Amazon in 2000-02 is about to happen to SpaceX by 2030-32. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX is moving toward a launch monopoly as ULA loses urgent national-security missions. Per @cb_doge, the Space Force shifted six launches to SpaceX to keep them on schedule. SpaceX is also negotiating leases with Crown Castle and other tower firms for at least 80,000 sites, a potentially multibillion-dollar step toward becoming the fourth nationwide US mobile carrier. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's growth story does not hold up, and Musk's guess of $3.5 trillion of revenue around 2033, reported by @cfromhertz, is laughable. Orbital data centers are fundamentally flawed; Starlink is inferior to AST SpaceMobile's full-speed direct-to-cell broadband with 60 carrier partners; and its launch business faces competition from Blue Origin and Rocket Lab. x.com