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Korean Growth & Space Investor, RKLB/TSLA/PLTR/SPCX
SpaceX is moving toward a launch monopoly as ULA loses urgent national-security missions. Per @cb_doge, the Space Force shifted six launches to SpaceX to keep them on schedule. SpaceX is also negotiating leases with Crown Castle and other tower firms for at least 80,000 sites, a potentially multibillion-dollar step toward becoming the fourth nationwide US mobile carrier. x.com x.com
SpaceX's AI compute business is generating profit, with new deployments reportedly paying back in under a year. Its third-quarter data-center business recorded net income, while company revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year. SpaceX says compute prices exceed $50 per watt. x.com x.com
SpaceX's satellite network should let Starlink Mobile provide equivalent cellular service with far less terrestrial infrastructure than other carriers. Acquiring some cell towers therefore makes sense. StockSavvyShay says SpaceX is in talks to secure at least 80,000 US cell sites. x.com
SpaceX looks like a long-term opportunity because government contracts, Starlink growth and its own launch infrastructure give it meaningful demand. In May it won a $4.16 billion Space Force agreement to develop satellites that track airborne threats, on top of a national security launch contract worth nearly $6 billion; SpaceX still has to deliver. Starlink connectivity revenue grew about 66% in the second quarter, and SpaceX's reusable rockets put those satellites in orbit. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX remains unattractive: its reported $8 billion spectrum deal covers only a tiny fraction of what a nationwide wireless network would require, even with expensive satellites that last just five years. x.com
SpaceX has a path to $170 by October 16 after agreeing to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum for Starlink Mobile's indoor coverage. The deal still needs FCC approval, and terms were not disclosed. x.com x.com
SpaceX's negative cost of capital gives it an advantage over AT&T and Verizon as it enters mobile telecom; neither incumbent has that funding position. x.com
SpaceX's effort to make satellite-only coverage count toward buildout requirements casts doubt on its terrestrial-network pitch. It is spending considerable energy seeking that option while saying it plans to build a terrestrial network. x.com
AT&T's leadership appears to underestimate the SpaceX threat. In a clip circulated by another account, its CEO reportedly called rocket reusability a dream; dismissing SpaceX this way looks like sleepwalking into the incumbent carrier's demise. x.com
SpaceX's near-monopoly in global satellite internet, built on reusable rockets, should generate enormous cash flow to partly fund its AI compute buildout. Those cash flows should strengthen its credit profile and let it finance the rest more cheaply than pure-play neoclouds CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, which SpaceX makes obsolete. Grok ensures deployed compute earns revenue if customers back out. There is no reason to own a pure-play neocloud when SpaceX is available. x.com x.com
SpaceX's neocloud-driven valuation is vulnerable to short-notice compute contract exits. Losing contracts with 90-day out clauses could cut $500B from its valuation; at least one out clause appears to be coming in 2027 rather than 2029. Neocloud expectations drive 80% of its current valuation, despite earlier fundraising on Starlink, reusable rockets and Mars. What happened to Amazon in 2000-02 is about to happen to SpaceX by 2030-32. x.com x.com
SpaceX need not be a short even if Democrats sweep, because it holds a launch monopoly for now. It does not even need to sell launches to anyone, since using them for Starlink V3 is more profitable. x.com
