Jo Bhakdi
Investor, Tesla & AI Stocks
SpaceX's negative cost of capital gives it an advantage over AT&T and Verizon as it enters mobile telecom; neither incumbent has that funding position. x.comÂ
Starlink Mobile threatens US carriers' pricing economics even if it takes little market share. AT&T's lack of investment for the future makes its exposure worse. In Peter Adderton's scenario, a $5 monthly price cut on 250 million remaining connections would cost carriers $15 billion a year. x.com x.comÂ
AT&T's dividend backed by free cash flow and buybacks could offer a place to hide if things get uglier. At ~9x 2026 EPS, it has a ~12% FCF yield, ~5% dividend yield and ~6-7% buyback yield. ~$2.8B in repurchases left under the 2026 target implies buying equal to ~6-7% of normal daily volume into year-end; its 5%+ dividend is backed by $18B+ in FCF. Starlink is a threat but seems overblown; the stock can get cheaper, yet AT&T diversifies exposure to new-paradigm bets such as SPCX. x.com x.comÂ
T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon look vulnerable to Starlink's prospective entry as a mobile carrier: the incumbents have grown complacent and milked customers for too long. Starlink should disrupt them, favoring SpaceX. x.comÂ
Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile look finished now that SpaceX is acquiring a spectrum license to become a major US mobile carrier. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Verizon stock fell 7% on the news. x.comÂ
Verizon and AT&T generate plenty of cash flow and can slow their spending if needed. Cell phones are widely used, and the carriers' metrics look fine. x.comÂ
Verizon and AT&T face pressure as Starlink enters mobile service: Musk's entry into their market should make it harder for incumbents to retain share. x.comÂ
AT&T faces downside risk from Starlink coming for cell plans; that competition looks set to leave a mark on the stock. x.comÂ
Nobody owns enough of the boring telcos, including Verizon, Nokia, Vodafone and AT&T, though every major leading theme, from space and defense to data centers and connectivity, converges on them. @Uzocapital points to sum-of-the-parts angles such as Vodafone's European joint venture with AST SpaceMobile. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's effort to make satellite-only coverage count toward buildout requirements casts doubt on its terrestrial-network pitch. It is spending considerable energy seeking that option while saying it plans to build a terrestrial network. x.comÂ