Bluechip
Value Investor, Short Seller
AT&T's dividend backed by free cash flow and buybacks could offer a place to hide if things get uglier. At ~9x 2026 EPS, it has a ~12% FCF yield, ~5% dividend yield and ~6-7% buyback yield. ~$2.8B in repurchases left under the 2026 target implies buying equal to ~6-7% of normal daily volume into year-end; its 5%+ dividend is backed by $18B+ in FCF. Starlink is a threat but seems overblown; the stock can get cheaper, yet AT&T diversifies exposure to new-paradigm bets such as SPCX. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's negative cost of capital gives it an advantage over AT&T and Verizon as it enters mobile telecom; neither incumbent has that funding position. x.comÂ
Debt, costly spectrum auctions and bad capital allocation make AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile long-term laggards. They may rebound, but cannot keep pace with the S&P 500 or even weaker safety stocks. T-Mobile's Sprint-led growth is over with higher leverage; AT&T cut its dividend and spent heavily on Warner, while Verizon flip-flopped on fiber. High yields do not compensate. If forced to choose, AST SpaceMobile is probably the better gamble since legacy carriers have more incentive to support it. … Show more
Verizon is gaining subscribers, cutting operating and capital spending and increasing capital returns, yet trades at an undemanding valuation that likely does not reflect the full value of those initiatives. Long-dated options on it are fairly cheap. x.comÂ
Nokia could be a huge beneficiary of Starlink's possible US carrier network because it is one of only two radio suppliers for cell sites, alongside Ericsson, and existing carriers would have to spend more to compete. SpaceX is seeking access to 80,000 sites, according to the author. Verizon's CEO estimates a full buildout would take at least four to six years and 65,000-80,000 sites; either way, the infrastructure demand looks bullish for Nokia. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Starlink Mobile threatens US carriers' pricing economics even if it takes little market share. AT&T's lack of investment for the future makes its exposure worse. In Peter Adderton's scenario, a $5 monthly price cut on 250 million remaining connections would cost carriers $15 billion a year. x.com x.comÂ
Verizon is attractive as a source of passive dividend income. At a roughly $0.69 quarterly dividend, 10,000 shares would pay about $6,900 every three months, or about $27,600 a year. x.comÂ
Corning now has long-term fiber deals with both Verizon and AT&T, supplying both broadband expansion and links between AI data centers. AT&T announced a multiyear fiber and cable deal exceeding $3B focused on home and business broadband, following Verizon's multibillion-dollar deal for over 80 million fiber miles from 2027 to 2032, including long-haul AI data center links. These deals could improve demand visibility; watch shipment ramps and profit growth versus expansion costs. x.comÂ
Verizon and AT&T face pressure as Starlink enters mobile service: Musk's entry into their market should make it harder for incumbents to retain share. x.comÂ
Nobody owns enough of the boring telcos, including Verizon, Nokia, Vodafone and AT&T, though every major leading theme, from space and defense to data centers and connectivity, converges on them. @Uzocapital points to sum-of-the-parts angles such as Vodafone's European joint venture with AST SpaceMobile. x.com x.comÂ