Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Nokia could be a huge beneficiary of Starlink's possible US carrier network because it is one of only two radio suppliers for cell sites, alongside Ericsson, and existing carriers would have to spend more to compete. SpaceX is seeking access to 80,000 sites, according to the author. Verizon's CEO estimates a full buildout would take at least four to six years and 65,000-80,000 sites; either way, the infrastructure demand looks bullish for Nokia. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia's strong AI and cloud sales and a live-network AI-RAN call strengthen its growth case despite the selloff. Per StockMCatalysts, Q3 AI and cloud net sales grew 123% year over year in constant currency, IP networks grew 43% in constant currency, and adjusted EPS beat estimates at €0.09 versus €0.06. Nokia completed an AI-RAN call with T-Mobile and Nvidia on a live operator network. The market's reaction looks irrational; even above $10, Nokia would still be worth owning. x.com x.com x.com
Starlink Mobile threatens US carriers' pricing economics even if it takes little market share. AT&T's lack of investment for the future makes its exposure worse. In Peter Adderton's scenario, a $5 monthly price cut on 250 million remaining connections would cost carriers $15 billion a year. x.com x.com
SpaceX's satellite network should let Starlink Mobile provide equivalent cellular service with far less terrestrial infrastructure than other carriers. Acquiring some cell towers therefore makes sense. StockSavvyShay says SpaceX is in talks to secure at least 80,000 US cell sites. x.com
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia's AI-RAN could gain SpaceX as a customer if its Nvidia-enabled solution fits SpaceX's compute needs. BofA says virtually all of SpaceX's current compute runs on Nvidia GPUs; the solution's higher cost and software mix could lift BofA's base-case incremental RAN assumptions. x.com
SpaceX could need cell towers as a customer, turning Starlink's feared disruption into potential rent for tower REITs. Crown Castle, SBA Communications and American Tower could gain a tenant, while T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon face a new competitor. x.com
Nokia does not deserve the roughly 50x multiples of optical pure plays like Ciena and Coherent, because it still carries large, shrinking legacy businesses in wireless, PON and routing. This rebuts Citron Research's case that comparisons with those peers make Nokia a $20 stock. x.com
Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com x.com
Verizon and AT&T face pressure as Starlink enters mobile service: Musk's entry into their market should make it harder for incumbents to retain share. x.com
Nokia offers no quality, growth or value edge, so it fits no portfolio strategy despite its 76% year-to-date rally, and growth potential in its Network Infrastructure segment is relatively modest. x.com
Verizon faces a growing threat from Starlink Mobile. On SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings call, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile share roughly $600B a year and that SpaceX expects to win some of their customers with better service that eliminates dead zones and holds up in natural disasters, starting at the end of next year. A 3% drop in Verizon stock understates that risk. x.com x.com
