Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Verizon faces a growing threat from Starlink Mobile. On SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings call, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile share roughly $600B a year and that SpaceX expects to win some of their customers with better service that eliminates dead zones and holds up in natural disasters, starting at the end of next year. A 3% drop in Verizon stock understates that risk. x.com x.comÂ
Verizon and AT&T face pressure as Starlink enters mobile service: Musk's entry into their market should make it harder for incumbents to retain share. x.comÂ
T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon look vulnerable to Starlink's prospective entry as a mobile carrier: the incumbents have grown complacent and milked customers for too long. Starlink should disrupt them, favoring SpaceX. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile faces growing satellite-cellular competition beyond Starlink Mobile, which, per Starlink, agreed to acquire a nationwide US low-band spectrum portfolio. A later 5,105-satellite direct-to-cell system from Amazon tied to Globalstar is also a threat. AST's best chance is giving AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile a fighting chance against them; that reliable Starlink Mobile service is a long way off doesn't matter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nokia could be a huge beneficiary of Starlink's possible US carrier network because it is one of only two radio suppliers for cell sites, alongside Ericsson, and existing carriers would have to spend more to compete. SpaceX is seeking access to 80,000 sites, according to the author. Verizon's CEO estimates a full buildout would take at least four to six years and 65,000-80,000 sites; either way, the infrastructure demand looks bullish for Nokia. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's push to become a major mobile carrier makes a carrier-backed direct-to-cell oligopoly around AST SpaceMobile increasingly likely. Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and dozens of foreign operators have every incentive to preserve competition rather than hand a vertically integrated rival that much influence, and AST's wholesale model lets them extend networks, keep subscribers and share the economics. Execution and launch cadence remain critical, but the reward is massive. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SpaceX could need cell towers as a customer, turning Starlink's feared disruption into potential rent for tower REITs. Crown Castle, SBA Communications and American Tower could gain a tenant, while T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon face a new competitor. x.comÂ
Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile look finished now that SpaceX is acquiring a spectrum license to become a major US mobile carrier. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Verizon stock fell 7% on the news. x.comÂ
SpaceX's negative cost of capital gives it an advantage over AT&T and Verizon as it enters mobile telecom; neither incumbent has that funding position. x.comÂ
SpaceX's satellite network should let Starlink Mobile provide equivalent cellular service with far less terrestrial infrastructure than other carriers. Acquiring some cell towers therefore makes sense. StockSavvyShay says SpaceX is in talks to secure at least 80,000 US cell sites. x.comÂ
SpaceX buying Grain's spectrum is not bullish for AST SpaceMobile, with only secondary angles that read positively. SpaceX has spent roughly $26 billion on spectrum, so AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile should spend to defend their moat instead of downplaying Musk; letting Grain buy spectrum only to flip it to SpaceX likely ranks among the most self-destructive management moves ever. AST's change-of-control filing came at an unusual time, likely ahead of this news, suggesting more than housekeeping. … Show more
