Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile look finished now that SpaceX is acquiring a spectrum license to become a major US mobile carrier. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Verizon stock fell 7% on the news. x.comÂ
Alternate Jones
VC Founder, SpaceX/xAI/Anduril Investor, Ex-Software Engineer
T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon look vulnerable to Starlink's prospective entry as a mobile carrier: the incumbents have grown complacent and milked customers for too long. Starlink should disrupt them, favoring SpaceX. x.comÂ
Verizon and AT&T face pressure as Starlink enters mobile service: Musk's entry into their market should make it harder for incumbents to retain share. x.comÂ
Nobody owns enough of the boring telcos, including Verizon, Nokia, Vodafone and AT&T, though every major leading theme, from space and defense to data centers and connectivity, converges on them. @Uzocapital points to sum-of-the-parts angles such as Vodafone's European joint venture with AST SpaceMobile. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's push to become a major mobile carrier makes a carrier-backed direct-to-cell oligopoly around AST SpaceMobile increasingly likely. Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and dozens of foreign operators have every incentive to preserve competition rather than hand a vertically integrated rival that much influence, and AST's wholesale model lets them extend networks, keep subscribers and share the economics. Execution and launch cadence remain critical, but the reward is massive. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SpaceX's negative cost of capital gives it an advantage over AT&T and Verizon as it enters mobile telecom; neither incumbent has that funding position. x.comÂ
Verizon is gaining subscribers, cutting operating and capital spending and increasing capital returns, yet trades at an undemanding valuation that likely does not reflect the full value of those initiatives. Long-dated options on it are fairly cheap. x.comÂ
SpaceX could need cell towers as a customer, turning Starlink's feared disruption into potential rent for tower REITs. Crown Castle, SBA Communications and American Tower could gain a tenant, while T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon face a new competitor. x.comÂ
AT&T's leadership appears to underestimate the SpaceX threat. In a clip circulated by another account, its CEO reportedly called rocket reusability a dream; dismissing SpaceX this way looks like sleepwalking into the incumbent carrier's demise. x.comÂ
SpaceX buying Grain's spectrum is not bullish for AST SpaceMobile, with only secondary angles that read positively. SpaceX has spent roughly $26 billion on spectrum, so AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile should spend to defend their moat instead of downplaying Musk; letting Grain buy spectrum only to flip it to SpaceX likely ranks among the most self-destructive management moves ever. AST's change-of-control filing came at an unusual time, likely ahead of this news, suggesting more than housekeeping. … Show more
Verizon faces a growing threat from Starlink Mobile. On SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings call, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile share roughly $600B a year and that SpaceX expects to win some of their customers with better service that eliminates dead zones and holds up in natural disasters, starting at the end of next year. A 3% drop in Verizon stock understates that risk. x.com x.comÂ