Just a Dude Who Invests
Retail Investor, Economics & Technology Commentary
T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon look vulnerable to Starlink's prospective entry as a mobile carrier: the incumbents have grown complacent and milked customers for too long. Starlink should disrupt them, favoring SpaceX. x.comÂ
Starlink Mobile threatens US carriers' pricing economics even if it takes little market share. AT&T's lack of investment for the future makes its exposure worse. In Peter Adderton's scenario, a $5 monthly price cut on 250 million remaining connections would cost carriers $15 billion a year. x.com x.comÂ
AT&T's dividend backed by free cash flow and buybacks could offer a place to hide if things get uglier. At ~9x 2026 EPS, it has a ~12% FCF yield, ~5% dividend yield and ~6-7% buyback yield. ~$2.8B in repurchases left under the 2026 target implies buying equal to ~6-7% of normal daily volume into year-end; its 5%+ dividend is backed by $18B+ in FCF. Starlink is a threat but seems overblown; the stock can get cheaper, yet AT&T diversifies exposure to new-paradigm bets such as SPCX. x.com x.comÂ
Verizon faces a growing threat from Starlink Mobile. On SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings call, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell said AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile share roughly $600B a year and that SpaceX expects to win some of their customers with better service that eliminates dead zones and holds up in natural disasters, starting at the end of next year. A 3% drop in Verizon stock understates that risk. x.com x.comÂ
AT&T faces downside risk from Starlink coming for cell plans; that competition looks set to leave a mark on the stock. x.comÂ
Verizon and AT&T generate plenty of cash flow and can slow their spending if needed. Cell phones are widely used, and the carriers' metrics look fine. x.comÂ
SpaceX could need cell towers as a customer, turning Starlink's feared disruption into potential rent for tower REITs. Crown Castle, SBA Communications and American Tower could gain a tenant, while T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon face a new competitor. x.comÂ
SpaceX's negative cost of capital gives it an advantage over AT&T and Verizon as it enters mobile telecom; neither incumbent has that funding position. x.comÂ
Nobody owns enough of the boring telcos, including Verizon, Nokia, Vodafone and AT&T, though every major leading theme, from space and defense to data centers and connectivity, converges on them. @Uzocapital points to sum-of-the-parts angles such as Vodafone's European joint venture with AST SpaceMobile. x.com x.comÂ
Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile look finished now that SpaceX is acquiring a spectrum license to become a major US mobile carrier. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Verizon stock fell 7% on the news. x.comÂ