Kairos
Stock Research
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia looks fair to attractive around $9 after strong earnings, worth about $17-18 by 2030 for an IRR above 15% with dividends. Revenue should grow about 8% a year, led by AI and cloud at 30% and defence at 40%; AI customers booked €2.8bn of orders in Q2 alone. Operating margin could rise from 11.8% to 17.5% by 2030 on Infinera synergies, defence, AI RAN, patents and optical price hikes, at 15x terminal EV/EBIT versus 20x now. Once the market sees AI capex rising, $13 is likely. x.com x.com
Nokia looks expensive at $10.78, trading at 19x cash earnings and 18x next year's versus the 11x its industry usually gets. A $5.93-$7.55 fair-value range means paying 43% over the top of fair. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com
Nokia does not deserve the roughly 50x multiples of optical pure plays like Ciena and Coherent, because it still carries large, shrinking legacy businesses in wireless, PON and routing. This rebuts Citron Research's case that comparisons with those peers make Nokia a $20 stock. x.com
Nokia's Q3 revenue and earnings beat despite the selloff makes it one of the most compelling buying opportunities in the market right now. Shares are back at $7.88, nearly 55% below their $17.45 high, after Nvidia invested $1 billion at $6.01 per share in October 2025. x.com
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia offers no quality, growth or value edge, so it fits no portfolio strategy despite its 76% year-to-date rally, and growth potential in its Network Infrastructure segment is relatively modest. x.com
Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com x.com
Credo's near-total share of AI data-center cables and unchanged estimates make its lower multiple look like a fear-driven opportunity. Its stock went from 27x to 20x forward earnings while the supply chain building those systems guided 2027 revenue to double. Buyers this week will probably be very happy a year from now. x.com
The optics trade, including Marvell, Ciena and Nokia, looks like fluff with no meat on the bone for investors to latch onto, and the same goes for CPU names like Arm and neoclouds like Nebius. Multiples are sky high and price action is terrible, with many names down about 35%. x.com
Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Nokia's guidance raise was just an accounting shift, leaving a steep climb to its profit target. The bump to €2.1-2.6 billion came from moving two business lines into discontinued operations; JPMorgan asked why operating targets weren't raised. With about €735 million of H1 operating profit, Nokia needs €1.8-1.9 billion in H2 for the top end, so delays risk a miss. Memory and optics remain bottlenecks, and only about half of €2.8 billion in AI and Cloud orders converts within 12 months. x.com … Show more
