Nokia offers no quality, growth or value edge, so it fits no portfolio strategy despite its 76% year-to-date rally, and growth potential in its Network Infrastructure segment is relatively modest. x.com
Vlad Bastion
Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios
Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia does not deserve the roughly 50x multiples of optical pure plays like Ciena and Coherent, because it still carries large, shrinking legacy businesses in wireless, PON and routing. This rebuts Citron Research's case that comparisons with those peers make Nokia a $20 stock. x.com
Nokia's story keeps getting better, with a turnaround still in its early stages that recalls Intel's. AI-driven network demand, optical growth, inflecting fundamentals and an expanding defense angle all support it. @BanyanLaneCap adds that as AI rebuilds connectivity, Nokia has many ways to win beyond the next two to three years, with real IP and only a few global competitors. x.com
Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com x.com x.com
Nokia's slow work culture makes it a poor investment despite the hype earlier this month. Since June 3, the day after Jensen Huang's remark on Marvell, Nokia has fallen 22.74%, while Marvell, avoided on valuation, fell 9.8%. Conviction remains in Micron and Nebius instead. x.com
Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com x.com
The optics trade, including Marvell, Ciena and Nokia, looks like fluff with no meat on the bone for investors to latch onto, and the same goes for CPU names like Arm and neoclouds like Nebius. Multiples are sky high and price action is terrible, with many names down about 35%. x.com
AmpliTech's selection over Nokia for the Open6G project is super bullish for the company, since Nokia looked like a sure pick. Per @EhrmantrautCap_, AmpliTech has disclosed NVIDIA as a customer through the US government-funded Open6G AI-RAN project at Northeastern University, where AmpliTech supplies the O-RAN CAT B 64T64R massive MIMO radio unit as the only American company commercializing it, and NVIDIA supplies AI Aerial. They expect AI-RAN TAM to grow from $2.5-3B to over $36B by 2035. x.com
Nokia's Q3 revenue and earnings beat despite the selloff makes it one of the most compelling buying opportunities in the market right now. Shares are back at $7.88, nearly 55% below their $17.45 high, after Nvidia invested $1 billion at $6.01 per share in October 2025. x.com
Nokia looks expensive at $10.78, trading at 19x cash earnings and 18x next year's versus the 11x its industry usually gets. A $5.93-$7.55 fair-value range means paying 43% over the top of fair. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com