Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nokia offers no quality, growth or value edge, so it fits no portfolio strategy despite its 76% year-to-date rally, and growth potential in its Network Infrastructure segment is relatively modest. x.com 

Nokia's Infinera business gives it a real position in the optical stack, but the market still prices it as a telecom story. The deeper opportunity is in silicon photonics and electro-optic modulators that eliminate the electrical-to-optical conversion bottleneck inside AI clusters, a shift analyst downgrades miss. @josephinvesting notes Handelsbanken cut Nokia to hold and calls it the most misunderstood optical networking play, with multiples compressed by its legacy telecom business. x.com 

Repeat orders and larger new-customer orders are driving SmartOptics' growth. Q3 revenue rose 80% and EBIT 340%, with strong cash flow. Ciena and Nokia are busy serving hyperscalers; SmartOptics should scoop up all other smaller customers. Its 300M revenue target by 2030 suggests more growth. x.com 

The optics trade, including Marvell, Ciena and Nokia, looks like fluff with no meat on the bone for investors to latch onto, and the same goes for CPU names like Arm and neoclouds like Nebius. Multiples are sky high and price action is terrible, with many names down about 35%. x.com 

Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com  x.com 

Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nokia looks expensive at $10.78, trading at 19x cash earnings and 18x next year's versus the 11x its industry usually gets. A $5.93-$7.55 fair-value range means paying 43% over the top of fair. These are valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com 

Nokia is becoming a credible Western AI infrastructure pick, though only its Network Infrastructure half. The Infinera deal added in-house photonic chip fabs and hyperscaler access, Nvidia's $1B stake brings AI-RAN co-design, and the segment grew 23% in FY25 with EUR2.4B of AI and cloud orders. Licensing at near-100% gross margin and EUR4.9B of net cash add support, while Mobile Networks is a commoditizing anchor. Risks: AI capex peaking before Nokia wins optical share, and synergy slippage. … Show more

Ciena's 30% drop from its high has nothing to do with the business, and both sell-off catalysts have now cleared. It beat EPS by 12%, grew revenue 40% and raised guidance to $6.3B, in line with consensus after a 200% run, while a $2.875B convertible added hedge selling through June 11. Hyperscalers are linking GPU clusters across cities and continents with 800G and 1.6T coherent optics, where Ciena leads data center interconnect, a market doubling to $50B by 2029. Backlog is $7.7B. x.com