Nokia looks overhyped for now, and a weak Q3 could bring a short-term pullback despite a bright long-term setup. Management said Q3 will be flat because high-margin software revenue was pulled into Q2, and restructuring charges of €390M still weigh. AI and cloud revenue rose 105%, with €2.8B of binding Q2 orders, but memory and optical supply limits are capping growth. Q4 needs to confirm the thesis before buying, likely toward year-end. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nokia's expected 2028 earnings do not make the stock particularly attractive at today's multiple. Even assuming EUR3.5bn of operating profit and a 17x multiple, the implied value is about $12.40, leaving the thesis dependent on multiple expansion. Datacenter and optical progress is good, but more growth in satellite communications and subsea would strengthen the case. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nokia's AI networking demand remains strong, and supply rather than demand is now its constraint. In Q2, AI and cloud customer revenue rose 105%, optical 20% and IP 16%. AI and cloud orders reached EUR 2.8B, up from EUR 1B in Q1, with about half expected to convert to revenue within 12 months. Management did not raise full-year guidance because supply of key parts such as indium phosphide devices and lasers limits delivery; as supply eases, the backlog should keep turning into revenue. x.com  … Show more

Nvidia retains pricing power if its full system keeps reducing customers' cost per effective AI task. Strong AI demand alone does not ensure profits across the chain: rising chip, memory and optical costs burden buyers, while tighter financing and slow collections threaten operators. Large customers developing their own chips could pressure Nvidia's margins even as the market grows. x.com 

AI suppliers' profits and signed demand distinguish this buildout from dotcom overcapacity. AI leaders rose 2.9x on 3.1x earnings growth versus 7.4x on 2.1x before 2000; cloud providers have $2.3T in signed backlog. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta could repay debt with about six months' cash flow, unlike 2008's leveraged banks. Micron has multiyear take-or-pay deals and ASML has orders years ahead. Memory profits are cyclical; TSMC, ASML and GE Vernova remain favored in AI's early innings. … Show more

Nokia's AI and cloud orders are set to turn into revenue, with about half of Q2's EUR 2.8B intake expected to convert over the next 12 months. Its San Jose fab ramps in Q4, Pennsylvania test and packaging capacity expands 10x from Q3, and an NXP Chandler fab lease for indium phosphide chips starts in early 2027, all for demand expected in 2027-28. Nokia targets EUR 2.7-3.2B of comparable operating profit by 2028, up from EUR 2.1-2.6B guided for 2026. x.com 

Rising AI equipment demand could sustain the buildout behind Micron, Nebius, Marvell, Bloom Energy and Applied Optoelectronics. ASML says customers are raising short- and medium-term forecasts, some are interested in orders for 2029 or 2030, and its currently planned 2027-28 supply may not fully meet demand. The dip in these AI stocks might be a buying opportunity. x.com 

Nvidia's capacity commitments argue against AI orders drying up soon. Its filings show mostly memory and manufacturing commitments rising from $119 billion to $279 billion in one quarter, with about $175 billion covering 2027-28. Fewer new data-center projects could reflect power, land and building bottlenecks rather than weaker demand; a mid-teens multiple still reflects a fair worry that profits may not last. x.com 

Nokia's agentic-AI work with Nvidia adds another bullish development to its network-automation case. Nokia says their models and network intelligence help operators act on insights while keeping control of sensitive data. L&T Technology Services also announced engineering and R&D work with Nokia in India; after strong Q3 results, the shares still look ridiculously priced. x.com  x.com 

Penguin Solutions' blowout quarter supports its shift from memory supplier to AI factory platform, which could change how the market values it. Q3 revenue rose 48% to $479 million versus $401 million expected, and it raised full-year revenue growth guidance to about 22% from 12% and EPS to $2.60 from $2.15. Integrated memory revenue more than doubled to $275 million as memory becomes a key AI bottleneck, and gross margin held above 28% despite rising DRAM costs. x.com  x.com