Disney looks like a dead stock walking as it raises streaming prices again on a service with little to no new content and many more commercials. Subscribers seem unlikely to keep paying, which is probably why management stopped reporting subscriber numbers. x.com 

Disney is a dog with fleas. Absurdly high theme-park prices face demand elasticity as a weakening consumer in a K-shaped economy pulls back. Its movie lineup is dated, with live-action Moana joining Snow White as box-office bombs; its balance sheet carries heavy debt from poorly conceived acquisitions that could curb park spending; and AI threatens several businesses. There is a price for everything: below $90, reward versus risk turns favorable. x.com  x.com 

Disney's improved fundamentals against a compressed P/E make the shares a coiled spring. Revenue is climbing 5-10% yearly, net income rose from $2 billion to $12 billion, and margins expanded while the stock has not reached a new all-time high in six years. That is a six-year discount with sixfold better fundamentals. x.com 

Softening theme-park trends are a critical support for the Disney short ahead of its August 5 results. Comcast said its parks operating environment softened more than anticipated, with attendance across the broader Orlando market starting to weaken even as Epic Universe performs well. x.com 

Disney is a value trap over the medium to long term, with no real reason to structurally re-rate. It can work as a tactical trade, to own when parks data is good and consumers keep absorbing price increases. That answers @ErnestWongBWM's case that parks are about 60% of profits and the stock trades below 15 times 2026 consensus EPS. x.com 

Disney's stock has gone nowhere since 2015 even as the business grew substantially. Revenue doubled, its cruise fleet doubled from four to eight ships, Disney+ and Hulu became a streaming powerhouse, parks hit record revenue and attendance, and it broke the record for highest-grossing animated film three times. x.com 

Fending off Apple, Disney, Amazon and others will prevent Netflix from ever returning capital to shareholders. The obsession with its stock is hard to understand. x.com 

Netflix faces high costs to keep producing major hits, while live TV is expensive and competitive and viewing habits are changing rapidly. It remains a good business and the stock should eventually find support, but even after its decline it is not appealing at this level. x.com 

Disney is cheap against its earnings. At $110.61 it trades at 23x earnings and 15x next year's, while entertainment companies usually get 28x. Fair value runs $183.42 to $233.44, about 28x next year's $7.44 EPS, putting the price 40% below the low end, though that leans on a forecast 53% above trailing earnings. This is a valuation read only, off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Disney's old IP thesis was wrong because its business has been too capital-intensive as run this century. Even buying at the exact lows over roughly 12 years would have meant losing badly to inflation. Re-entry would only make sense if Disney changed its operating model, perhaps even through a split. x.com