Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
AT&T's dividend backed by free cash flow and buybacks could offer a place to hide if things get uglier. At ~9x 2026 EPS, it has a ~12% FCF yield, ~5% dividend yield and ~6-7% buyback yield. ~$2.8B in repurchases left under the 2026 target implies buying equal to ~6-7% of normal daily volume into year-end; its 5%+ dividend is backed by $18B+ in FCF. Starlink is a threat but seems overblown; the stock can get cheaper, yet AT&T diversifies exposure to new-paradigm bets such as SPCX. x.com x.comÂ
Verizon and AT&T generate plenty of cash flow and can slow their spending if needed. Cell phones are widely used, and the carriers' metrics look fine. x.comÂ
Debt, costly spectrum auctions and bad capital allocation make AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile long-term laggards. They may rebound, but cannot keep pace with the S&P 500 or even weaker safety stocks. T-Mobile's Sprint-led growth is over with higher leverage; AT&T cut its dividend and spent heavily on Warner, while Verizon flip-flopped on fiber. High yields do not compensate. If forced to choose, AST SpaceMobile is probably the better gamble since legacy carriers have more incentive to support it. … Show more
SpaceX buying Grain's spectrum is not bullish for AST SpaceMobile, with only secondary angles that read positively. SpaceX has spent roughly $26 billion on spectrum, so AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile should spend to defend their moat instead of downplaying Musk; letting Grain buy spectrum only to flip it to SpaceX likely ranks among the most self-destructive management moves ever. AST's change-of-control filing came at an unusual time, likely ahead of this news, suggesting more than housekeeping. … Show more
Verizon is gaining subscribers, cutting operating and capital spending and increasing capital returns, yet trades at an undemanding valuation that likely does not reflect the full value of those initiatives. Long-dated options on it are fairly cheap. x.comÂ
AT&T faces downside risk from Starlink coming for cell plans; that competition looks set to leave a mark on the stock. x.comÂ
Accenture looks overdone after its post-earnings plunge, with a dividend yield above 5% and a forward P/E in the low 10s, near March 2020 pandemic-low prices. It booked 104 deals of $100 million-plus this year, up 13%, raised its dividend 10% and is buying Dragos, runZero and NetRise to expand in cybersecurity. Yet this is not a growth stock: revenue missed, bookings fell 2%, guidance was cut, the Middle East cost $400 million, and agentic AI threatens consulting. It could fall further. x.comÂ
Verizon is attractive as a source of passive dividend income. At a roughly $0.69 quarterly dividend, 10,000 shares would pay about $6,900 every three months, or about $27,600 a year. x.comÂ