Investing visuals
Technology Investor, Visual Company Research
Meta's core advertising business is significantly outgrowing its biggest competitors even before factoring in the newer businesses it is building. Q3 ad revenue rose 26% year over year, versus 10.6% at Alphabet and 10.9% at Amazon. Back at 19x forward earnings, Meta is the most undervalued Magnificent Seven stock. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's growth and earnings make its valuation appealing. It trades at 17x 2027 estimates with 17% EPS and 22% revenue growth. Its $140 billion EBITDA should make it worth more than Anthropic, which has none, though that comparison could be wrong. If distribution is king, Meta Muse could benefit from Meta's 3.64 billion daily active users, according to GuruFocus News. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's cash generation turned negative in Q3, coinciding with the start of its share-price slide. It was Meta's first negative free-cash-flow quarter in more than a decade. A $25 billion share sale priced at $625 this week, and the shares are already below that price. x.comÂ
Meta's ad engine is still growing, and its higher AI spending comes with a stronger revenue outlook. Revenue was $64.6B versus $63.4B expected, with $63.1B in ads; the Q4 guide midpoint of $74.5B beat $73.7B expected. Meta raised only the capex floor to $135B, leaving the $145B ceiling unchanged. The roughly $10B legal charge depressed reported EPS, not ads. Overweight, $1,004 target with 41% upside. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's revenue growth and above-consensus Q4 guidance keep its growth case strong. Q3 revenue rose 26.07% to $64.601B versus $63.373B expected, and adjusted EPS of $7.40 beat the $5.74 estimate. Q4 revenue guidance is $73B-$76B; its $74.5B midpoint exceeds Wall Street's $73.736B estimate, signaling continued growth into the final quarter of 2026. Long Meta. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's valuation is compelling again because its operating-cash-flow multiple has fallen while revenue growth accelerated over the past year. It trades at 12x operating cash flow, close to 10x 2027 operating cash flow. Its unique position should make it one of the AI era's biggest winners, with Muse becoming its best asset in the long run. The equity raise's timing was unwelcome, but that is now behind it. x.comÂ
Meta's better-than-expected revenue is why it should return to its roughly $800 all-time high. Revenue rose 26.1% year over year to $64.60 billion, above the $63.37 billion analyst estimate; quarterly EPS was $3.83 and net income was $9.86 billion. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's heavy spending raises questions about how it will earn a return even if its core business improves. Quarterly free cash flow fell from $13.2 billion in March 2026 to $1.7 billion in June and negative $1.2 billion in September. x.comÂ
Meta's third-quarter advertising and earnings beats, plus its fourth-quarter revenue outlook, should be viewed favorably by investors. Advertising revenue was $63.1B versus $61.8B expected and EPS was $3.83 versus $3.57; fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $73B-$76B versus $73.6B expected. The lower end of 2026 capex guidance rose to $135B, while the $145B upper end stayed unchanged. x.comÂ