PDD Holdings' growing domestic Pinduoduo business keeps funding Temu's global push, and its chart is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders. Q1 revenue grew 11%, China's June retail sales returned to growth above 5%, and the analyst consensus target of about $99 sits well above the price. A daily close above $88.25 would trigger the pattern, with targets of $93.01, $96.05 and $100.97. x.com 

PDD can outperform without innovating because it trades at about 4x EV to free cash flow. That answers @TYCFOR, who questioned the bullish case given little innovation beyond cutting prices by going direct to producers. x.com 

PDD Holdings can no longer grow faster than high single digits and even has typos in its quarterly report. Per @teechongyen, revenue rose 8% and operating profit 7.6%, while net income fell 12% on an "other loss", and the cash flow statement labeled a US dollar column as RMB. x.com 

PDD Holdings is too cheap at 5 to 6x earnings ex cash because the market prices a permanent margin collapse, likely as extreme as the old belief in endless growth. Its push into supply chain, first-party and merchant investment may make it bigger but less profitable, and Temu's durability is unproven. Yet this quarter's $15.4B revenue still yielded about $2.8B operating profit, and $77B of cash and investments backs much of its value. If earnings just stabilize, the multiple looks unjustifiable. … Show more

The AI boom keeps capital from rotating into PDD, delaying its rerating. PDD looks cheap enough to buy gradually now, but may have to wait until the AI boom ends to rerate. x.com 

PDD Holdings carries governance and geopolitical red flags that its low valuation does not offset. Its founder stepped down and left the board at 41, the company fractured a regulator's hand and kept employees from speaking to regulators, growth slowed from 90% in 2023 to about 10%, it buys back no stock, and US investors face unknown treatment in a war. @fintergirl argues it trades below 4x operating earnings with 60% of its market value backed by cash. x.com 

Alibaba's $10.2 billion Hong Kong share placement shows its cash burn has caught up with it, and more dilution is likely. Core China ecommerce makes roughly $30 billion of flat EBIT, half of it reinvested in quick commerce to defend share against PDD. Cloud and AI earns $2 billion of EBIT growing 35% but burns about $10 billion a year in AI-model opex. Pro forma EBIT of about $7 billion collapses after $20-25 billion of annual capex, so Alibaba will keep tapping equity markets. x.com 

PICS, Inter & Co and PDD look crazily cheap, trading at roughly 5x forward earnings net of cash, while being well-known local brands. They stand out on @ReturnsJourney's screen of price per active user, which flags several interesting cheap companies. x.com 

JD.com is one of the few China internet names whose 2026 earnings risk skews up, so its multiple can rerate on beats rather than a sentiment recovery. Its logistics-backed retail core has been resilient, quick-commerce losses should narrow as the 2025 investment cycle matures without needing a macro recovery, and international expansion is measured. Overweight with a $38 December 2026 target, 9x 2027 earnings. Risks: share loss to Pinduoduo and Alibaba, margin pressure, a weaker China. x.com 

Alibaba's 8.5% drop on its $10 billion discounted raise punishes the one thing that is working, its AI build-out. Bloomberg says the raise was three times oversubscribed, and the chairman and CEO bought $15 million of stock the same afternoon. Cloud revenue grew 45% last quarter, per Alibaba's June filing, AI product revenue has grown triple digits for twelve straight quarters, and its open model Qwen passed 3 billion downloads to become the most used AI. The dilution reaction ignores that. … Show more