Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
Moderna's approaching October 24 data release at a Madrid conference makes some pre-event profit-taking likely. After the release, the stock could be $400, $200 or $40; the outcome is unknown. x.comÂ
Moderna looks likely to stay relatively stable above its gap-up price into next year, as big buyers return. A $6M sale of March 2027 $110 puts bets on exactly that, which seems logical. Yesterday's $30B was the second-largest dollar buy volume ever for the stock, after buy volumes had already re-emerged; January's buying, the largest since Q2 2024, came when the stock was above $100, versus about $50 now. x.com x.comÂ
Moderna generates one-tenth of Bristol Myers Squibb's revenue, making their nearly equal valuations hard to justify. x.comÂ
Pfizer is a true safe haven that looks cheap at $28 a share, trading below 10 times adjusted earnings. Its 6.1% dividend has been paid for more than 349 quarters in a row, a remarkable record, and sentiment across biotech is strong after news from Moderna and Merck. x.comÂ
Moderna could get explosive above $200 as anyone who shorted last week's valuation downgrade has to cover. The shakeout on that downgrade was a killer opportunity, and the stock is now back over $200. x.comÂ
Merck has downside risk even as Moderna soared 176% today, with Wall Street analysts seeing the stock potentially as low as $105 a share. x.comÂ
Moderna's oncology franchise has been repriced by the Merck-partnered INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine trial, a watershed moment. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $180 target, noting shares remain more than 70% below their old highs, and Moderna closed an upsized $2.6 billion convertible note to fund oncology growth. The stock is consolidating in a tight pennant after its biggest gap up in years; a move above $156.13 targets $161.37, then $176.66. x.comÂ
Moderna is a stock to bet against. x.comÂ
Moderna's data catalyst is done, and it won't get an early stop in RCC. That makes it a good short here, with the story over until at least next summer. x.comÂ
Moderna looks expensive even under a bullish scenario. A base model values Covid, flu and RSV at $10B, oncology at $15B and the platform at $5B: a $30B market cap, or $75 a share versus $135, about 45% downside. Even $10B of oncology sales by 2035, one of the best pharma launches ever, at 8x sales and a 10% discount rate gives about $120. The CMV trial failed, norovirus is at risk, rivals are developing mRNA flu vaccines, and BofA's raised $170 target looks unjustified. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more