Marcos Milla
Former Analyst at the Federal Reserve, ETF/Stock Newsletter Author
Moderna has almost 40% downside to its average analyst price target of $119.56, which makes the sudden rush to buy it hard to explain. x.comÂ
Moderna's oncology franchise has been repriced by the Merck-partnered INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine trial, a watershed moment. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $180 target, noting shares remain more than 70% below their old highs, and Moderna closed an upsized $2.6 billion convertible note to fund oncology growth. The stock is consolidating in a tight pennant after its biggest gap up in years; a move above $156.13 targets $161.37, then $176.66. x.comÂ
Merck looks cheap at 16x earnings when drugmakers usually get 20x. Fair value is roughly $168-214, or 20x next year's expected $9.57 EPS give or take 12%, putting the stock about 10% below the bottom of that range; it would be expensive above $215. The view leans on forecasts, with forward EPS 32% above trailing, and involves no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Moderna remains unattractive despite forced Nasdaq-100 index buying: quarterly revenue is $145M against a $782M loss, while shares trade around $200. Citi rates it Sell with an $80 target. x.comÂ
Moderna's approaching October 24 data release at a Madrid conference makes some pre-event profit-taking likely. After the release, the stock could be $400, $200 or $40; the outcome is unknown. x.comÂ
Healthcare looks attractive as volatility has eased in recent weeks while inflows stay steady. Merck is the best-looking pharma play, pharma and biotech are favored, and the broad healthcare sector covers all the bases. x.comÂ
Moderna is a stock to bet against. x.comÂ
Merck looks overvalued at a forward P/E of 110. x.comÂ
Pfizer looks set to rebound toward $30-$35 after about $2M of insider buying around $25. If Moderna can rally this year, so can this once-beloved pharma name. x.comÂ
Moderna could get explosive above $200 as anyone who shorted last week's valuation downgrade has to cover. The shakeout on that downgrade was a killer opportunity, and the stock is now back over $200. x.comÂ