GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Merck looks cheap at 16x earnings when drugmakers usually get 20x. Fair value is roughly $168-214, or 20x next year's expected $9.57 EPS give or take 12%, putting the stock about 10% below the bottom of that range; it would be expensive above $215. The view leans on forecasts, with forward EPS 32% above trailing, and involves no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Regeneron is ridiculously cheap at 9.5x 2028 EV to free cash flow, versus 13x for Bristol Myers Squibb and 16x for Merck. @PCM_bio counters that its pipeline is weaker than those peers', but Regeneron has only about a third of their revenue. x.com x.comÂ
Pfizer is a true safe haven that looks cheap at $28 a share, trading below 10 times adjusted earnings. Its 6.1% dividend has been paid for more than 349 quarters in a row, a remarkable record, and sentiment across biotech is strong after news from Moderna and Merck. x.comÂ
Merck looks overvalued at a forward P/E of 110. x.comÂ
Amgen's run as a safety trade is near the point where it typically rolls over. Such trades usually work until the stock reaches 16-17x earnings, and Amgen is now close to that level. x.comÂ
Moderna's oncology franchise has been repriced by the Merck-partnered INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine trial, a watershed moment. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $180 target, noting shares remain more than 70% below their old highs, and Moderna closed an upsized $2.6 billion convertible note to fund oncology growth. The stock is consolidating in a tight pennant after its biggest gap up in years; a move above $156.13 targets $161.37, then $176.66. x.comÂ
Merck has downside risk even as Moderna soared 176% today, with Wall Street analysts seeing the stock potentially as low as $105 a share. x.comÂ
Pfizer looks set to rebound toward $30-$35 after about $2M of insider buying around $25. If Moderna can rally this year, so can this once-beloved pharma name. x.comÂ
Bristol Myers Squibb and Merck look expensive given the market's optimism about their patent cliffs. Bristol Myers trades at 13x and Merck at 16x 2028 EV/FCF, versus Regeneron at 9.5x, which is ridiculous. As @PCM_bio notes, Opdivo loses exclusivity in 587 days and Bristol has done little to address that or its other patent expirations. x.com x.comÂ
