Natan
Contrarian Stock Investor
Regeneron can finally return to $1,000 on its prefilled syringe approval and Dupixent momentum. Cemdisiran is a potential blockbuster too, with better dosing intervals than argenx's drug as that market keeps growing. Momentum could favor Regeneron over the next two quarters, though over five years the expected return is 13% for Regeneron versus 27% for Meta. x.com x.comÂ
Moderna generates one-tenth of Bristol Myers Squibb's revenue, making their nearly equal valuations hard to justify. x.comÂ
Regeneron could benefit as managers rotate from AI into lagging sectors. UBS upgraded it to Buy and lifted its target from $660 to $978, arguing its drugs lined up to replace Dupixent are worth more than Wall Street expects. x.com x.comÂ
Regeneron no longer meets the return threshold for a non-defensive holding. Its exponential growth ran from the financial crisis to the mid-2010s and has not worked since, and it pays almost no dividend. Unlike gold, oil or safety holdings, it needs to deliver strong returns to justify its place, though it may regain its momentum within five years. x.com x.comÂ
Merck looks cheap at 16x earnings when drugmakers usually get 20x. Fair value is roughly $168-214, or 20x next year's expected $9.57 EPS give or take 12%, putting the stock about 10% below the bottom of that range; it would be expensive above $215. The view leans on forecasts, with forward EPS 32% above trailing, and involves no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Bristol Myers Squibb offers a strong drug pipeline and a 4.3% dividend, making it a slow but safe long-term holding. It sits in one of the market's largest bullish ascending triangles, with a 350% gain projected to complete Wave 5. x.comÂ
AbbVie looks cheap at 16 times earnings, against the 20 times drugmakers usually get. Fair value is $285.91 to $363.89, based on 20 times next year's $16.25 a share give or take 12%, so the $261.83 price sits 8% below the low end; it turns expensive above $307.61. The range leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 60% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Merck looks overvalued at a forward P/E of 110. x.comÂ