GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
AbbVie looks cheap at 16 times earnings, against the 20 times drugmakers usually get. Fair value is $285.91 to $363.89, based on 20 times next year's $16.25 a share give or take 12%, so the $261.83 price sits 8% below the low end; it turns expensive above $307.61. The range leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 60% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
AbbVie looks set to turn higher after printing a strong hammer candle on RSI divergence, backed by a clean double beat on earnings. x.comÂ
Abivax's risk-reward still makes a ton of sense because buyout comps point to a large premium. @seedy19tron's analysis suggests a 105% premium to the current price, about $218 a share or roughly $20 billion, would get a deal over the line for Pfizer, Lilly, Takeda, AbbVie or AstraZeneca. x.comÂ
AbbVie's terminal value is a concern: it has had big autoimmune hits to backfill Humira, yet it still trades at 19x forward earnings on a $450B market cap, while Johnson & Johnson's 2024-25 acquisition spree is paying off. x.comÂ
Regeneron is ridiculously cheap at 9.5x 2028 EV to free cash flow, versus 13x for Bristol Myers Squibb and 16x for Merck. @PCM_bio counters that its pipeline is weaker than those peers', but Regeneron has only about a third of their revenue. x.com x.comÂ
Amgen's run as a safety trade is near the point where it typically rolls over. Such trades usually work until the stock reaches 16-17x earnings, and Amgen is now close to that level. x.comÂ
Exelixis stands out as a profitable biotech that still looks cheap at just 17x EPS and under 2x PEG. The oncology company has 35% profit margins, the best in its space, and earnings up 500% over two years. x.comÂ
