Greg
Public Equities Commentary
Abivax's risk-reward still makes a ton of sense because buyout comps point to a large premium. @seedy19tron's analysis suggests a 105% premium to the current price, about $218 a share or roughly $20 billion, would get a deal over the line for Pfizer, Lilly, Takeda, AbbVie or AstraZeneca. x.comÂ
Definium looks like prime, scarce real estate as Big Pharma hunts for neuropsychiatry assets and the shopping list gets very short. After AbbVie's move, Eli Lilly is now putting up to $3.8B into atai, and the tide is rising for the group. x.comÂ
AbbVie looks cheap at 16 times earnings, against the 20 times drugmakers usually get. Fair value is $285.91 to $363.89, based on 20 times next year's $16.25 a share give or take 12%, so the $261.83 price sits 8% below the low end; it turns expensive above $307.61. The range leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 60% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Regeneron could benefit as managers rotate from AI into lagging sectors. UBS upgraded it to Buy and lifted its target from $660 to $978, arguing its drugs lined up to replace Dupixent are worth more than Wall Street expects. x.com x.comÂ
Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.comÂ
AbbVie looks set to turn higher after printing a strong hammer candle on RSI divergence, backed by a clean double beat on earnings. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly at new record highs still trades at only 26x forward earnings despite 55% revenue growth and triple-digit EPS growth last quarter. EPS is projected to grow 51% this year. x.comÂ