Abivax looks worth more than its roughly $9.7 billion market cap. A quick analysis of its indications points to about $5 to $6 billion in sales, implying a value of around $12 to $15 billion. Earlier reservations were not about its mechanism of action but that it has only a single drug. x.com  x.com 

Abivax is still a great buy because its drug is the best ever in ulcerative colitis, with over $5 billion of peak sales possible in UC alone. A positive Crohn's disease readout looks about 90% likely, which would lift combined peak sales above $10 billion. As a bold bet, it gets bought for more than $225 a share by November. x.com 

Abivax's plunge reflects the loss of an M&A premium on safety signals, not a clinical failure, and more downside is possible near term. Obefazimod's ulcerative colitis efficacy is strong: about 51% remission in 44-week maintenance at 25mg and 50mg versus 10.4% for placebo. But prostate, breast and colorectal cancer or dysplasia cases at 50mg, though judged unrelated, could weigh on FDA review, labeling and sales. Waiting for FDA meetings and detailed October data is safer than bottom-fishing. … Show more

Abivax's cancer scare looks overblown, while its ulcerative colitis drug is among the most effective in development, with about 50% remission at 44 weeks in Phase 3 versus about 10% on placebo. UC patients already carry higher cancer risk, so what matters is whether cases exceed the expected rate, and management, who know the coming data, chose to publish historical rates. If safety holds, the oral, first-in-mechanism drug could take the stock to about $150 and draw takeover bids above $200. … Show more

Significant discounts to broader pharmaceutical industry valuations on projected 2031 earnings make some high-quality mid-cap biotech stocks attractive. Many have cleared Phase 3 trials or reached more advanced stages, and some may reach profitability without more capital, an advantage if financing tightens. Selling these stocks to chase speculative biotech or large pharma at historically elevated multiples makes little sense. x.com 

AbbVie looks cheap at 16 times earnings, against the 20 times drugmakers usually get. Fair value is $285.91 to $363.89, based on 20 times next year's $16.25 a share give or take 12%, so the $261.83 price sits 8% below the low end; it turns expensive above $307.61. The range leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 60% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

AbbVie's terminal value is a concern: it has had big autoimmune hits to backfill Humira, yet it still trades at 19x forward earnings on a $450B market cap, while Johnson & Johnson's 2024-25 acquisition spree is paying off. x.com 

Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.com 

AbbVie looks set to turn higher after printing a strong hammer candle on RSI divergence, backed by a clean double beat on earnings. x.com 

Definium looks like prime, scarce real estate as Big Pharma hunts for neuropsychiatry assets and the shopping list gets very short. After AbbVie's move, Eli Lilly is now putting up to $3.8B into atai, and the tide is rising for the group. x.com