Bussin Science Investor
Investor Focused on Risk/Reward
Abivax is still a great buy because its drug is the best ever in ulcerative colitis, with over $5 billion of peak sales possible in UC alone. A positive Crohn's disease readout looks about 90% likely, which would lift combined peak sales above $10 billion. As a bold bet, it gets bought for more than $225 a share by November. x.comÂ
Abivax's cancer scare looks overblown, while its ulcerative colitis drug is among the most effective in development, with about 50% remission at 44 weeks in Phase 3 versus about 10% on placebo. UC patients already carry higher cancer risk, so what matters is whether cases exceed the expected rate, and management, who know the coming data, chose to publish historical rates. If safety holds, the oral, first-in-mechanism drug could take the stock to about $150 and draw takeover bids above $200. … Show more
Abivax's risk-reward still makes a ton of sense because buyout comps point to a large premium. @seedy19tron's analysis suggests a 105% premium to the current price, about $218 a share or roughly $20 billion, would get a deal over the line for Pfizer, Lilly, Takeda, AbbVie or AstraZeneca. x.comÂ
Abivax's plunge reflects the loss of an M&A premium on safety signals, not a clinical failure, and more downside is possible near term. Obefazimod's ulcerative colitis efficacy is strong: about 51% remission in 44-week maintenance at 25mg and 50mg versus 10.4% for placebo. But prostate, breast and colorectal cancer or dysplasia cases at 50mg, though judged unrelated, could weigh on FDA review, labeling and sales. Waiting for FDA meetings and detailed October data is safer than bottom-fishing. … Show more
Abivax looks worth more than its roughly $9.7 billion market cap. A quick analysis of its indications points to about $5 to $6 billion in sales, implying a value of around $12 to $15 billion. Earlier reservations were not about its mechanism of action but that it has only a single drug. x.com x.comÂ
Significant discounts to broader pharmaceutical industry valuations on projected 2031 earnings make some high-quality mid-cap biotech stocks attractive. Many have cleared Phase 3 trials or reached more advanced stages, and some may reach profitability without more capital, an advantage if financing tightens. Selling these stocks to chase speculative biotech or large pharma at historically elevated multiples makes little sense. x.comÂ
