Abivax is still a great buy because its drug is the best ever in ulcerative colitis, with over $5 billion of peak sales possible in UC alone. A positive Crohn's disease readout looks about 90% likely, which would lift combined peak sales above $10 billion. As a bold bet, it gets bought for more than $225 a share by November. x.com 

Abivax's risk-reward still makes a ton of sense because buyout comps point to a large premium. @seedy19tron's analysis suggests a 105% premium to the current price, about $218 a share or roughly $20 billion, would get a deal over the line for Pfizer, Lilly, Takeda, AbbVie or AstraZeneca. x.com 

Abivax's plunge reflects the loss of an M&A premium on safety signals, not a clinical failure, and more downside is possible near term. Obefazimod's ulcerative colitis efficacy is strong: about 51% remission in 44-week maintenance at 25mg and 50mg versus 10.4% for placebo. But prostate, breast and colorectal cancer or dysplasia cases at 50mg, though judged unrelated, could weigh on FDA review, labeling and sales. Waiting for FDA meetings and detailed October data is safer than bottom-fishing. … Show more

Abivax looks worth more than its roughly $9.7 billion market cap. A quick analysis of its indications points to about $5 to $6 billion in sales, implying a value of around $12 to $15 billion. Earlier reservations were not about its mechanism of action but that it has only a single drug. x.com  x.com 

Small- and mid-cap biotech looks like one of healthcare's more asymmetric setups after a four-year bear market, as AI speeds drug discovery and Big Pharma faces a patent cliff. Over $300B of pharma revenue goes off patent in the next few years, M&A is already ramping hard as pharma hunts for assets, and many small and mid-cap names still trade at reasonable valuations, making them potential takeover targets. x.com 

The biotech and genomics boom is best owned broadly, because single biotech stocks are binary bets on trial results no analyst can handicap. One failed readout can halve a stock, as Novo Nordisk's lost market value on disappointing data showed. Owning blue-chip biotech and high-beta genomics as diversified baskets captures the funding rebound, the AI drug-discovery tailwind and the re-rating after years of deep bear market and a decisive breakout, without the single-molecule lottery. x.com  x.com  … Show more