Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Regeneron no longer meets the return threshold for a non-defensive holding. Its exponential growth ran from the financial crisis to the mid-2010s and has not worked since, and it pays almost no dividend. Unlike gold, oil or safety holdings, it needs to deliver strong returns to justify its place, though it may regain its momentum within five years. x.com x.comÂ
Bristol Myers Squibb and Merck look expensive given the market's optimism about their patent cliffs. Bristol Myers trades at 13x and Merck at 16x 2028 EV/FCF, versus Regeneron at 9.5x, which is ridiculous. As @PCM_bio notes, Opdivo loses exclusivity in 587 days and Bristol has done little to address that or its other patent expirations. x.com x.comÂ
Regeneron could benefit as managers rotate from AI into lagging sectors. UBS upgraded it to Buy and lifted its target from $660 to $978, arguing its drugs lined up to replace Dupixent are worth more than Wall Street expects. x.com x.comÂ
Regeneron is ridiculously cheap at 9.5x 2028 EV to free cash flow, versus 13x for Bristol Myers Squibb and 16x for Merck. @PCM_bio counters that its pipeline is weaker than those peers', but Regeneron has only about a third of their revenue. x.com x.comÂ
