Shell's stronger refining profits and larger buyback support the view that its breakout holds. Q3 adjusted earnings reached $10.8 billion versus $9.9 billion expected, as refining margins hit a record $42 a barrel; the three-month buyback rises from $3 billion to $5 billion. Those margins will not last forever. x.com 

Low forward earnings multiples alongside strong investor sentiment put these S&P 500 stocks atop the smart-value ranking. APA, Viatris, EOG, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Phillips 66, Allstate, Diamondback, Everest and Centene trade at 6-15x forward earnings after one-year gains of 17-150%; the accompanying ranking also weighs free-cash-flow yield and momentum. x.com 

Marathon Petroleum looks expensive against its earnings. It trades at 15x trailing earnings when oil and gas producers usually get 10x, putting fair value at $239.59-$304.93 on 10x mid-cycle EPS of $28.21, give or take 12%. Trailing and forward earnings differ by 69%, and $259.65 marks a pullback level. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Refiners Marathon Petroleum, Valero and Phillips 66 are back at the top of S&P 500 momentum rankings as earnings surge. The three earned a combined $12.6 billion in Q2, the most since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, with Marathon and Valero scoring 100 on momentum and Phillips 66 scoring 99. x.com 

Petrobras leads this week's EWT Growth Leaders because of surging earnings and sales in the leading energy group. It ranks #1 with a 91 score and A rating: last-quarter EPS rose 121% year over year, sales 60%, and annual EPS 191%. A breakout above 26.42 or a fourth-wave pullback to 24.3-23.0 offers a setup for a projected fifth wave to 32.8-33.2. x.com 

Refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum may be nearing a top, because the cure for high prices is always high prices. The stocks have made monster moves as crack spreads blow out and foreign buyers fight for distillate capacity. x.com 

Phillips 66 looks expensive against its earnings at 15x trailing and 10x next year's, while oil and gas producers usually get 9x. Applying 9x to mid-cycle EPS of $15.31, give or take 12%, puts fair value at $120.49 to $153.35, so $264.58 is 73% above the top of that range. Trailing and forward earnings differ by 50%, so the range is wide, and this is a valuation read only, not fundamental work. x.com 

With the 10-year Treasury yield touching 5%, cash generation and price strength matter more, favoring developed-market large caps that pair the highest free-cash-flow yields with strong momentum. General Motors leads with an 18.8% FCF yield, followed by BP at 13.6%, Marathon Petroleum at 11.6% with a top momentum score of 100, DHL at 11.4% and Shell at 11.3%. Verizon, AT&T, Suncor, Valero and Equinor complete the list with yields of 8.9% to 10.1% and momentum scores from 80 to 100. x.com 

Par Pacific Holdings, a refiner, is a new addition as the portfolio itself gets refined. x.com 

US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com  … Show more