Shell's stronger refining profits and larger buyback support the view that its breakout holds. Q3 adjusted earnings reached $10.8 billion versus $9.9 billion expected, as refining margins hit a record $42 a barrel; the three-month buyback rises from $3 billion to $5 billion. Those margins will not last forever. x.com 

Low forward earnings multiples alongside strong investor sentiment put these S&P 500 stocks atop the smart-value ranking. APA, Viatris, EOG, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Phillips 66, Allstate, Diamondback, Everest and Centene trade at 6-15x forward earnings after one-year gains of 17-150%; the accompanying ranking also weighs free-cash-flow yield and momentum. x.com 

Par Pacific offers a downstream way to play oil. The refiner just spun off a low-margin business and has the strongest free cash flow along with the lowest P/E and price-to-sales ratios in the space. Its price broke out this week. x.com 

PBF Energy is cheap against its earnings at about $80.69, trading at 7x earnings and 5x next year's versus the 14x oil and gas producers usually get. Applying 14x to mid-cycle EPS of $9.12, plus or minus 12%, gives fair value of $112.38 to $143.03, leaving it 28% below the low end. This is a valuation screen only, without fundamental work. x.com 

Petrobras looks cheap against its earnings at 6x forward earnings, versus the roughly 14x oil and gas producers usually get. Applying 14x to next year's estimated $4.14 a share gives a fair range of about $51 to $65, leaving the stock 52% below the low end. The view rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and revenue estimates only, not fundamental work. x.com 

Valero looks expensive against its earnings, trading at 17x, or 10x next year's, versus the usual 9x for oil and gas producers. At 9x mid-cycle EPS of $22.12, give or take 12%, fair value is $177.34-$225.71, so the $406.30 price is 80% above fair, though trailing and forward reads differ by 63%. This is a valuation read off reported earnings and estimates only, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Marathon Petroleum's earnings are impressive at $17 a share, and Q3 should be better. The open question is whether it can reach $25 a share and sustain that for a few quarters. x.com 

Phillips 66 looks expensive against its earnings at 15x trailing and 10x next year's, while oil and gas producers usually get 9x. Applying 9x to mid-cycle EPS of $15.31, give or take 12%, puts fair value at $120.49 to $153.35, so $264.58 is 73% above the top of that range. Trailing and forward earnings differ by 50%, so the range is wide, and this is a valuation read only, not fundamental work. x.com 

Marathon Petroleum looks expensive against its earnings. It trades at 15x trailing earnings when oil and gas producers usually get 10x, putting fair value at $239.59-$304.93 on 10x mid-cycle EPS of $28.21, give or take 12%. Trailing and forward earnings differ by 69%, and $259.65 marks a pullback level. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com