Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft are getting to the point of looking cheap, given their great free cash flows. x.com
John
Macro Commentary
Nvidia's robotics and autonomous-vehicle opportunities are not yet baked into its valuation. The stock looks super cheap here and ranks first among the Magnificent Seven for investment attractiveness. x.com x.com
The Magnificent Seven's growth, fortress balance sheets and central role in the AI buildout now come at multiples that finally make sense. They have barely bent when high-beta names lose 10% in a session; that resilience makes their valuations down here one of the better opportunities in this market. x.com
Magnificent Seven stocks face continued pressure as AI capex keeps eating their free cash flow with no sign of slowing, and the market is not rewarding the builders for now despite the returns. The recipients of that spending in power, grid, chips and materials, such as TSMC, GE Vernova, Micron and ASML, look better. Concern is greatest for Tesla and Meta, whose recent moves seem disconnected and whose AI showcase was embarrassing; Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Alphabet are less concerning. x.com
The alpha now lies in cheap Magnificent Seven stocks about to reap biblical returns from their capex, with Meta, Amazon and Nvidia the top three picks. x.com x.com x.com
The Magnificent Seven excluding Tesla are cheap because multiples fell more than prices while earnings growth accelerates. Ex-Tesla the group trades at 21.5x, with earnings expected to grow about 24% this year and 21% next; buying at 21x has averaged 29% 12-month returns. Unlike 2022, the Hormuz shock is narrower: severe forecasts see 4.1% inflation, and further hikes are questionable. If these stocks keep falling broadly on geopolitical uncertainty, it will be a generational opportunity. x.com
Microsoft's position is the most crowded among the Magnificent Seven, and fund flows are against it as funds sell those stocks to reserve cash for Anthropic's IPO. It faded despite an excellent earnings report. x.com
The Magnificent Seven will keep making investors rich and should consistently outperform the market, because they are super cheap relative to the S&P 500's P/E. The group covers Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Alphabet and Meta, along with the MAGS ETF that holds them. x.com
The Magnificent Seven's recent weakness is a prime buying opportunity, because S&P 500 tech earnings forecasts have kept surging despite the war. The group has shown serious resilience through volatility, and the broader tech sector keeps proving its strength. x.com
The Magnificent Seven's capex-heavy effort has eviscerated their balance sheets, leaving them exposed if a new technology or competitive threat emerges. That one-two hit is the real risk. x.com
Amazon looks cheap against its expected long-term earnings growth if that growth proves accurate. Its five-year consensus growth is the fastest in the Magnificent 7 after Nvidia, while its 0.90 forward P/E-to-growth ratio is the lowest excluding Nvidia. x.com x.com