Investing visuals
Technology Investor, Visual Company Research
CrowdStrike trades at 109x forward price to free cash flow, its highest since turning FCF positive, which prices in about 58% annual FCF growth for a 15% return. That requires faster revenue growth or wider margins from an already high 30%, versus Q2 revenue growth of 26% and FCF growth of 36%. The stock was near $100 a few months ago with no fundamental change since, so buying at these levels calls for caution. x.comÂ
SentinelOne appears undervalued relative to its expected revenue growth. Analysts forecast 19.2% NTM revenue growth, versus 23.2% for CrowdStrike, which trades at a premium on forward EV/sales. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike at 45x revenue is even sillier than its valuation back in 2020, when its fundamentals were far stronger: customer count grew 116%, revenue guidance beat the Street and sales and acquisition costs fell. There was a time to own it; that time is not now. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike may distinguish itself from an expensive cybersecurity group by showing more breakneck growth at earnings next month. Fortinet's slowing product revenue exposed how much relentless execution investors had priced into the group's extreme multiples, pulling CrowdStrike down in sympathy. CrowdStrike remains in a higher tier than Fortinet, which itself ranks above SentinelOne. x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's growth is too slow to justify its valuation. Its forward P/E has climbed to about 190, while stock-based compensation exceeds operating earnings, so reported free cash flow margins do not show what the business actually earns. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
CrowdStrike at 40x forward sales is hard to take seriously as a best idea into 2027. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's re-rating reflects a massively expanded market in which security seats are defined by AI agents rather than employees. The Mythos model announcement and a frontier model going rogue with cyber attacks changed the fundamentals since the stock was at $100. It is very expensive versus its history and peers, and @InvestingVisual notes it trades at 109x forward free cash flow, but that does not mean nothing has changed. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's 45x sales multiple on mid-20% revenue growth only works if multiple expansion continues in perpetuity, which no long holder can count on. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's valuation of over 50x revenue is completely indefensible. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike is worth holding through the next cycle because enterprise-scale endpoint security is a fortress every company needs. x.comÂ
CrowdStrike's multiple looks insane, while SK hynix is far cheaper with heavy buybacks ahead. CrowdStrike trades at 36x next-twelve-month revenue and 119x free cash flow, with 22% expected revenue growth. Even at an unlikely 40% annual growth from about $6 billion in FY2027 and FCF margins rising to 40%, it would trade at 40x FY2030 free cash flow. SK hynix sits at 3x 2027 EPS and should buy back 50% or more of its shares over 3-5 years. x.com x.com x.comÂ