Long-dated US Treasuries can generate large passive income for decades. Buying $100 million of 30-year Treasury bonds would pay about $500,000 a month for 30 years. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries now pay enough to beat gambling on leverage: a 30-year Treasury at 5.60% turns $5 million into $280,000 a year, about $23,333 a month, for 30 years without touching a stock or watching a chart. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries look worth a small long: recent market action testing Treasuries is likely wrong, and the 20-30 year part of the curve is what the Fed can most easily push around. The Fed may raise rates but would not do QT. A long 30-year position also trims some overall oil beta. x.com  x.com 

Over a 20-year horizon the S&P 500 should beat long-dated Treasuries even at a 5.3% yield, because adjusted for inflation those bonds return only about 3% a year. Choosing Treasuries over the S&P 500 for that span is lunacy. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries look like a good hedge against rising rates, which at some point could crash the stock market. Duration on the 20-year Treasury has come way down, so another 100 basis points higher in yields would mean about an 11% price decline, or roughly a -5% total return. That is small compared with the decline equities could suffer. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries carry duration risk that isn't worth taking given a structural 6% U.S. deficit and bipartisan acceptance of inflation to support asset prices. With 4.5% available at the short end, there is little reason to own the long end. Even Lacy Hunt, long confident in deflation, is throwing in the towel on long bonds over fiscal largesse. Six years after Covid nothing has changed, so this is not about a local tradable bottom. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look like a high-reward, low-risk long as the 10-year yield meets strong resistance at 5%. Selling off into a 93% priced-in rate hike, with weak sentiment on both sides of the Fed decision, is not a recipe for continuation. Core CPI fell to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, while headline CPI is stuck at 3.4% on an Iran-driven energy supply shock that a hike can't fix. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh calls the 10-year the most important asset in the world. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com