legen
Founder of InsiderWave, Politician Trade Tracking
Long-dated Treasuries offer a compelling income stream at a 5.60% 30-year yield. Investing $1,000,000 would pay $56,000 a year for 30 years with no effort, enough to retire on. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries now pay enough to beat gambling on leverage: a 30-year Treasury at 5.60% turns $5 million into $280,000 a year, about $23,333 a month, for 30 years without touching a stock or watching a chart. x.comÂ
Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasury yields need to stay high because megacap tech companies now compete for bond buyers. Oracle bonds yield over 8%, Meta's over 7%, and Google sold a 10x-oversubscribed 100-year sterling bond above 6%, while hyperscaler issuance is surging from $35B toward $200B. Megacaps are becoming as creditworthy as governments, making this a new paradigm of persistent competition, and Warsh appears to agree hyperscaler debt plays a role. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries look like a good hedge against rising rates, which at some point could crash the stock market. Duration on the 20-year Treasury has come way down, so another 100 basis points higher in yields would mean about an 11% price decline, or roughly a -5% total return. That is small compared with the decline equities could suffer. x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries look worth a small long: recent market action testing Treasuries is likely wrong, and the 20-30 year part of the curve is what the Fed can most easily push around. The Fed may raise rates but would not do QT. A long 30-year position also trims some overall oil beta. x.com x.comÂ
Over a 20-year horizon the S&P 500 should beat long-dated Treasuries even at a 5.3% yield, because adjusted for inflation those bonds return only about 3% a year. Choosing Treasuries over the S&P 500 for that span is lunacy. x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries should eventually rally because oil will come down and the 30-year yield will have to follow. With the 30-year yield and oil elevated, prices are still heading lower for now, and a 30-year yield trending above 6% would make this a very strong trade. x.comÂ