Cole Grinde
Stock & Options Investor, Dividends/Value/Fundamentals, Tesla
Long-dated Treasuries look like a potential buy after falling almost 50%, and an even better one if yields keep climbing toward 6%. Their long duration means a 1% rise in long yields cuts the price by about 15%, but a fall in yields works the other way, with a roughly 5% yield paid along the way. Yields rise on inflation, growth, Fed hikes, Treasury supply or term premium, and anything that knocks one down can stop the move; right now the market is tied to oil and Fed Chair Warsh. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries should rally over the next few trading days because the US-Iran draft agreement should send oil sharply lower. Falling oil should lower inflation expectations and pull long-end yields down, lifting bond prices. x.com x.comÂ
The break in 30-year Treasuries shows the long end losing control as the world slowly starts ignoring the US. Per the FT via @unusual_whales, the White House accused more than 40 countries of helping China evade US tariffs, which signals the US does not control anything. The 20-year is also losing its level; if prices lose $82, the next wave is likely to $70. x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries show textbook capitulation, suggesting the 10-year yield is near a temporary top. Long bonds have closed below the lower Bollinger band for five straight days on rising volume, with implied-volatility rank at an extreme, a sign of extremely crowded shorts. High rates do little to restrain highly profitable companies such as big tech and semiconductors. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries could put in a bottom, with 10-year yields topping, over the next couple of weeks, though not with an explosive recovery like April 9, 2025. Per another investor, the 20+ year Treasury ETF drew $1.7 billion of inflows last week, its fourth-largest weekly inflow since June 2024, after a record $5.6 billion in August. x.comÂ
Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.comÂ
Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries may finally be worth buying because Kevin Warsh will cut rates in May regardless, since Trump will make him. A 3.82% dividend yield is on offer too. x.comÂ
Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com x.comÂ