Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries show textbook capitulation, suggesting the 10-year yield is near a temporary top. Long bonds have closed below the lower Bollinger band for five straight days on rising volume, with implied-volatility rank at an extreme, a sign of extremely crowded shorts. High rates do little to restrain highly profitable companies such as big tech and semiconductors. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look like a high-reward, low-risk long as the 10-year yield meets strong resistance at 5%. Selling off into a 93% priced-in rate hike, with weak sentiment on both sides of the Fed decision, is not a recipe for continuation. Core CPI fell to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, while headline CPI is stuck at 3.4% on an Iran-driven energy supply shock that a hike can't fix. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh calls the 10-year the most important asset in the world. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries look favorable as the rise in 10-year yields appears mostly over; inflation searches have peaked, and only 13 of 29 tracked commodities are above their 50-day averages. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries could rally 20-30% over the next few years if deflation outpaces growth for a period. That would pull investors into bonds to lock in higher yields, pushing yields down, since government money printing isn't keeping up with emerging deflation. US government finances should also strengthen as growth outpaces debt, making bonds more attractive. It is a small bet that should work for a period of time. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The break in 30-year Treasuries shows the long end losing control as the world slowly starts ignoring the US. Per the FT via @unusual_whales, the White House accused more than 40 countries of helping China evade US tariffs, which signals the US does not control anything. The 20-year is also losing its level; if prices lose $82, the next wave is likely to $70. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com  x.com