Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look like a high-reward, low-risk long as the 10-year yield meets strong resistance at 5%. Selling off into a 93% priced-in rate hike, with weak sentiment on both sides of the Fed decision, is not a recipe for continuation. Core CPI fell to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, while headline CPI is stuck at 3.4% on an Iran-driven energy supply shock that a hike can't fix. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh calls the 10-year the most important asset in the world. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Treasury yields are putting in a top, and bonds look to be at a major bottom. Deflation is coming, and investors are extrapolating rate momentum, adding two plus two and getting six; that move will likely reverse soon. The fear in questions about how high rates can go is typical of major bottoms. Equity markets are not close to signaling a reversal either. x.com  x.com 

The secular rise in Treasury yields will likely last longer and go further than most expect, making bets on a yield low premature. Investors tried to time the low in yields from the early 2000s and were 20 years early. The most rate-sensitive sectors, homebuilders, mortgage names and private equity, where smart money would show up first if a turn were near, show no hint of accumulation. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries show textbook capitulation, suggesting the 10-year yield is near a temporary top. Long bonds have closed below the lower Bollinger band for five straight days on rising volume, with implied-volatility rank at an extreme, a sign of extremely crowded shorts. High rates do little to restrain highly profitable companies such as big tech and semiconductors. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries benefit from falling long-end yields as the Fed's inflation response becomes a policy error. The Fed looks likely to hike again to defend its credibility despite a supply shock; 5% rates are unsustainable, and current price action points to financial damage followed by a hard pivot. A one-year rate freeze could instead let long yields rise by giving the economy a breather and making later hikes more likely. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are in a bear market as several forces push long yields higher. Oil and diesel prices tied to Russia-Ukraine, a Fed more determined since Jackson Hole to return inflation to 2% by holding rates high into a supply shock, and heavy corporate issuance for the AI buildout all weigh on bonds. Long yields are also returning toward their long-term average of about 5%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look oversold because Treasury Secretary Bessent is likely to intervene soon. Long-end yields reflect term premium from a fiscal problem, not inflation fear, and only the issuer can fix it by shifting supply to bills, sizing up long-dated buybacks and signaling it. Treasury already doubled long-dated buybacks in August. With a trillion-dollar interest bill, policymakers have a pain threshold; the 1942-1951 yield cap is the precedent. @UrbanKaoboy sees a capitulation bottom. … Show more