Joe
Full-Time Trader/Investor, Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Inflection Points
Long-dated Treasuries could put in a bottom, with 10-year yields topping, over the next couple of weeks, though not with an explosive recovery like April 9, 2025. Per another investor, the 20+ year Treasury ETF drew $1.7 billion of inflows last week, its fourth-largest weekly inflow since June 2024, after a record $5.6 billion in August. x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries show textbook capitulation, suggesting the 10-year yield is near a temporary top. Long bonds have closed below the lower Bollinger band for five straight days on rising volume, with implied-volatility rank at an extreme, a sign of extremely crowded shorts. High rates do little to restrain highly profitable companies such as big tech and semiconductors. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.comÂ
Economic projections for falling inflation and rising unemployment leave December as the only window for another Fed hike, exposing long-dated Treasuries to more selling as yields rebound. Treasury buying has cooled yields ahead of the midterms, but yields should rise again with stocks and crypto through year-end. The subsequent liquidity shift should bring bearish volatility at first; then TLT should break above 81-82 as the Fed turns to cuts of at least 50 basis points by March 2027. x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries should eventually rally because oil will come down and the 30-year yield will have to follow. With the 30-year yield and oil elevated, prices are still heading lower for now, and a 30-year yield trending above 6% would make this a very strong trade. x.comÂ
Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries have further to fall because bonds have not reached capitulation and may still be in denial. Treasury prices have hit fresh lows, and the selling plausibly comes from anyone who needs to repay US-dollar-denominated debt. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries are attractive at about a 5.2% yield, which looks like what it takes to draw domestic buyers to replace foreign demand. @acemoney21 argues the supply-demand imbalance is real as China and the EU leave Treasury auctions, so Americans must be incentivized with 5% risk-free yields, and that curve steepening is part of the administration's plan. Locking in about 5% on part of a portfolio for the next 20 years is appealing. x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated US Treasuries should rally over the next few trading days because the US-Iran draft agreement should send oil sharply lower. Falling oil should lower inflation expectations and pull long-end yields down, lifting bond prices. x.com x.comÂ
The break in 30-year Treasuries shows the long end losing control as the world slowly starts ignoring the US. Per the FT via @unusual_whales, the White House accused more than 40 countries of helping China evade US tariffs, which signals the US does not control anything. The 20-year is also losing its level; if prices lose $82, the next wave is likely to $70. x.com x.comÂ
Long-dated Treasuries could rally 20-30% over the next few years if deflation outpaces growth for a period. That would pull investors into bonds to lock in higher yields, pushing yields down, since government money printing isn't keeping up with emerging deflation. US government finances should also strengthen as growth outpaces debt, making bonds more attractive. It is a small bet that should work for a period of time. x.com x.com x.comÂ
