AI borrowing is pushing rates up because hyperscalers will pay any price for money, so rates must keep rising until they hurt price-sensitive borrowers. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle sold about $194 billion of bonds by early July, 79% more than in all of 2025, and the 10-year yield touched 5.33%, the highest since 2002. Julien Garran warns a downturn may not lower long yields much, with big deficits everywhere while Japan and China step back from Treasuries. x.com 

Long-term Treasury yields keep climbing because investors increasingly doubt America enough to lend to it for 30 years, and nobody can force them to lend cheap. US debt is $40 trillion, interest costs over $1 trillion a year, more than the military, and the deficit is 6% of GDP during a boom. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $4 billion buybacks are fake demand that fixes none of the overspending, a point Stanley Druckenmiller made in his op-ed "Let the Bond Market Speak." x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated government bond yields are surging worldwide at once, a sign something is wrong. UK 30-year yields hit 5.88%, the highest since 1998, the US 30-year topped 5%, Japan's 10-year reached 2.95%, and German and French long yields hit 2011 and 2008 highs. The roots are dangerous government debt levels, European and UK central bank balance-sheet shrinkage, and tech giants issuing 20-40-year bonds that draw pension and insurer demand away from government debt. x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasury yields face structural upward pressure until deficits fall, and neither party shows the will to cut them. US deficits of 6% are the highest ever outside a major war, and debt above $40 trillion against $33 trillion of GDP could be the breaking point. Japan's 10-year yield near 3%, the highest since 1996, gives it reason to sell some of its $1 trillion of Treasuries, and the UK, holding $0.9 trillion, has 10-year yields at 5.1%. Fed action may only briefly slow the rise. … Show more

Long-dated US Treasuries look favorable as the rise in 10-year yields appears mostly over; inflation searches have peaked, and only 13 of 29 tracked commodities are above their 50-day averages. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields are anchored by fiscal policy, not the Fed, so without a credible budget plan bond buyers keep pushing them higher. Moving holdings to the short end turns Treasuries into quasi-money T-bills, which adds to inflation and lifts the whole curve. Ray Dalio says Japan selling US bonds, long-end yields at new highs with a weaker dollar, and Scott Bessent's limited buyback plan fit his template for how countries go broke. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com