Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Long-dated Treasury yields need to stay high because megacap tech companies now compete for bond buyers. Oracle bonds yield over 8%, Meta's over 7%, and Google sold a 10x-oversubscribed 100-year sterling bond above 6%, while hyperscaler issuance is surging from $35B toward $200B. Megacaps are becoming as creditworthy as governments, making this a new paradigm of persistent competition, and Warsh appears to agree hyperscaler debt plays a role. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look oversold because Treasury Secretary Bessent is likely to intervene soon. Long-end yields reflect term premium from a fiscal problem, not inflation fear, and only the issuer can fix it by shifting supply to bills, sizing up long-dated buybacks and signaling it. Treasury already doubled long-dated buybacks in August. With a trillion-dollar interest bill, policymakers have a pain threshold; the 1942-1951 yield cap is the precedent. @UrbanKaoboy sees a capitulation bottom. … Show more

Treasury buybacks are too small to offset selling pressure on long-dated US Treasuries. Today's buyback of up to $6 billion of 20- to 30-year debt barely moves the needle, and recent buybacks have failed to push yields sustainably lower. The bond-vigilante read is that investors are selling into Treasury's buying to test Secretary Scott Bessent's ability to control the long end. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

US Treasuries face rising yields because the US is running out of willing buyers for its debt. With about $40 trillion of debt and large deficits, foreign governments no longer want to finance America after errant trade policy and poor diplomacy, and capital has better places to go than government bonds. Bondholders have lost a ton in the past year. Higher rates will either curb fiscal bad behavior or create a crisis, since a 5% Treasury cannot last long without a debt spiral. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are no place to hide, because Treasury's buyback is a minnow against the pile of debt it aims to calm. Kevin Warsh will hike anyway, as he said at Jackson Hole, even though a rate hike cannot produce a barrel of crude or reopen a strait, and the bond market is daring him to prove it. Occidental, at about 8.4x trailing earnings with an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock, looks far better. x.com  x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

US Treasuries remain unattractive despite retail bond-fund buying: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer reports end investors accumulating bond funds, while retail buyers risk becoming exit liquidity before the debt cycle capitulates. Rising debt and debt-supply-led inflation are expected to push long-end yields higher even after the midterms. Junk-credit stress adds to the risk of a wider debt-market selloff, leaving bonds a risky equity-crash hedge. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com