Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-term Treasury yields keep climbing because investors increasingly doubt America enough to lend to it for 30 years, and nobody can force them to lend cheap. US debt is $40 trillion, interest costs over $1 trillion a year, more than the military, and the deficit is 6% of GDP during a boom. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $4 billion buybacks are fake demand that fixes none of the overspending, a point Stanley Druckenmiller made in his op-ed "Let the Bond Market Speak." x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

US Treasuries remain unattractive despite retail bond-fund buying: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer reports end investors accumulating bond funds, while retail buyers risk becoming exit liquidity before the debt cycle capitulates. Rising debt and debt-supply-led inflation are expected to push long-end yields higher even after the midterms. Junk-credit stress adds to the risk of a wider debt-market selloff, leaving bonds a risky equity-crash hedge. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries are the real scam, not bitcoin, Tesla, SpaceX or the Magnificent Seven. Investors who dismiss those still buy government bonds, even though the government keeps printing endless money and can only pay them back by printing more. x.com 

Treasuries are losing their risk-free appeal as inflation runs hot and US government credibility erodes. If the 10-year projects inflation to surge, bonds that barely beat it make little sense, and Fed hikes won't slow a hot economy or fix an energy supply shock with oil at $100. Higher borrowing costs make the growing debt harder to finance, leading to money printing and more inflation. Big tech is more creditworthy than ever; even for fixed income, Alphabet's corporate debt is preferable. … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries look like a high-reward, low-risk long as the 10-year yield meets strong resistance at 5%. Selling off into a 93% priced-in rate hike, with weak sentiment on both sides of the Fed decision, is not a recipe for continuation. Core CPI fell to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021, while headline CPI is stuck at 3.4% on an Iran-driven energy supply shock that a hike can't fix. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh calls the 10-year the most important asset in the world. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasury yields face structural upward pressure until deficits fall, and neither party shows the will to cut them. US deficits of 6% are the highest ever outside a major war, and debt above $40 trillion against $33 trillion of GDP could be the breaking point. Japan's 10-year yield near 3%, the highest since 1996, gives it reason to sell some of its $1 trillion of Treasuries, and the UK, holding $0.9 trillion, has 10-year yields at 5.1%. Fed action may only briefly slow the rise. … Show more