US Treasuries face rising yields because the US is running out of willing buyers for its debt. With about $40 trillion of debt and large deficits, foreign governments no longer want to finance America after errant trade policy and poor diplomacy, and capital has better places to go than government bonds. Bondholders have lost a ton in the past year. Higher rates will either curb fiscal bad behavior or create a crisis, since a 5% Treasury cannot last long without a debt spiral. x.com  x.com 

Treasuries are losing their risk-free appeal as inflation runs hot and US government credibility erodes. If the 10-year projects inflation to surge, bonds that barely beat it make little sense, and Fed hikes won't slow a hot economy or fix an energy supply shock with oil at $100. Higher borrowing costs make the growing debt harder to finance, leading to money printing and more inflation. Big tech is more creditworthy than ever; even for fixed income, Alphabet's corporate debt is preferable. … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries are no place to hide, because Treasury's buyback is a minnow against the pile of debt it aims to calm. Kevin Warsh will hike anyway, as he said at Jackson Hole, even though a rate hike cannot produce a barrel of crude or reopen a strait, and the bond market is daring him to prove it. Occidental, at about 8.4x trailing earnings with an 8.7% free cash flow yield during an oil shock, looks far better. x.com  x.com 

US Treasuries remain unattractive despite retail bond-fund buying: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer reports end investors accumulating bond funds, while retail buyers risk becoming exit liquidity before the debt cycle capitulates. Rising debt and debt-supply-led inflation are expected to push long-end yields higher even after the midterms. Junk-credit stress adds to the risk of a wider debt-market selloff, leaving bonds a risky equity-crash hedge. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look oversold because Treasury Secretary Bessent is likely to intervene soon. Long-end yields reflect term premium from a fiscal problem, not inflation fear, and only the issuer can fix it by shifting supply to bills, sizing up long-dated buybacks and signaling it. Treasury already doubled long-dated buybacks in August. With a trillion-dollar interest bill, policymakers have a pain threshold; the 1942-1951 yield cap is the precedent. @UrbanKaoboy sees a capitulation bottom. … Show more

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries face pressure because the market will buy US debt only at 5%-plus yields, with no short-term fix in sight. The 10-year yield keeps climbing parabolically as Washington issues enormous debt to fund deficits, investors demand more compensation for inflation and duration risk, the Fed is now raising rates, and Treasuries must compete harder for global capital. The government seems reluctant to act, while rising oil prices add to inflation pressure. x.com 

Falling Treasury yields reinforce the growth-scare thesis and mark a bullish turn for long-dated Treasuries. The 10-year yield is breaking below 5% as TLT rallies. x.com 

Treasury buybacks are too small to offset selling pressure on long-dated US Treasuries. Today's buyback of up to $6 billion of 20- to 30-year debt barely moves the needle, and recent buybacks have failed to push yields sustainably lower. The bond-vigilante read is that investors are selling into Treasury's buying to test Secretary Scott Bessent's ability to control the long end. x.com