Treasury buybacks are too small to offset selling pressure on long-dated US Treasuries. Today's buyback of up to $6 billion of 20- to 30-year debt barely moves the needle, and recent buybacks have failed to push yields sustainably lower. The bond-vigilante read is that investors are selling into Treasury's buying to test Secretary Scott Bessent's ability to control the long end. x.com 

Long-term Treasury yields keep climbing because investors increasingly doubt America enough to lend to it for 30 years, and nobody can force them to lend cheap. US debt is $40 trillion, interest costs over $1 trillion a year, more than the military, and the deficit is 6% of GDP during a boom. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's $4 billion buybacks are fake demand that fixes none of the overspending, a point Stanley Druckenmiller made in his op-ed "Let the Bond Market Speak." x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Long-dated Treasuries are the safe-haven trade again as money rotates into yield. With the 30-year paying over 5%, holding non-yielding assets is harder to justify; after the Fed held, yields fell across the curve and TLT rose 1%. x.com 

Inflation has broken long-dated US Treasuries' safe-haven role. Long-term Treasuries have returned -4.1% annually in the 2020s to date, versus +4.9% in the 1930s. Long bonds look unlikely to do well for at least the rest of this decade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

US Treasuries remain unattractive despite retail bond-fund buying: Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer reports end investors accumulating bond funds, while retail buyers risk becoming exit liquidity before the debt cycle capitulates. Rising debt and debt-supply-led inflation are expected to push long-end yields higher even after the midterms. Junk-credit stress adds to the risk of a wider debt-market selloff, leaving bonds a risky equity-crash hedge. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries look oversold because Treasury Secretary Bessent is likely to intervene soon. Long-end yields reflect term premium from a fiscal problem, not inflation fear, and only the issuer can fix it by shifting supply to bills, sizing up long-dated buybacks and signaling it. Treasury already doubled long-dated buybacks in August. With a trillion-dollar interest bill, policymakers have a pain threshold; the 1942-1951 yield cap is the precedent. @UrbanKaoboy sees a capitulation bottom. … Show more

The bid for US Treasuries is thinning beyond Japan, leaving the US needing new buyers to fund its borrowing. Net purchases by the most US-aligned countries are down more than 60% to their lowest since 2021; South Korea sold a record $23.8 billion, the most since 1977. x.com 

US Treasuries face rising yields because the US is running out of willing buyers for its debt. With about $40 trillion of debt and large deficits, foreign governments no longer want to finance America after errant trade policy and poor diplomacy, and capital has better places to go than government bonds. Bondholders have lost a ton in the past year. Higher rates will either curb fiscal bad behavior or create a crisis, since a 5% Treasury cannot last long without a debt spiral. x.com  x.com 

Long-dated Treasuries could benefit from less issuance of AI-related debt, which today's news may point to, even if the deal itself is minor. Separately, a free Meta Muse hurts the leading AI models at least at the fringe, and wide consumer adoption of AI agents will come when Apple launches its own or partners with a model maker. x.com 

Long-dated US Treasuries have further to fall because bonds have not reached capitulation and may still be in denial. Treasury prices have hit fresh lows, and the selling plausibly comes from anyone who needs to repay US-dollar-denominated debt. x.com  x.com  x.com